John Rapley
WHEN BILL Clinton became United States president in 1993, American liberals controlled Congress and had a sympathetic majority on the Supreme Court. Eight years later, when Mr. Clinton handed the White House keys over to a conservative, George W. Bush, Congress was in conservative hands.
Since then, the conservative presence in government has only expanded. Republicans strengthened their hold over Congress in the last two elections, and retained the presidency last year. Within the Republican Party itself, conservatives have continued to augment their influence, with moderate Republicans an endangered species.
In short, U.S. conservatives are on a roll. It goes back a long way. The nadir of U.S. conservatism probably came in the early 1960s, at which time the liberalism associated with the likes of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy had no obvious rival. But after a string of setbacks that had started in the New Deal Era of the 1930s, conservatives began reorganising. Slowly but steadily, they started clawing back ground.
FIRST BIG TRIUMPH
Their first big triumph, and one to which they all still harken back as their turning-point, came with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Yet despite the open conservatism of Mr. Reagan's presidency, it was hardly evident through the 1980s that US liberalism was in decline. In the Democratic Party, liberals were still strong. And in Congress and state capitols, the Democrats were doing better than holding their own.
In hindsight, though, they were ailing. The slide accelerated in the 1990s, when a Democratic presidency masked serious erosion in the party. After all, Mr. Clinton was one of the most conservative Democrats his party had produced in a long time. His followers helped him to marginalize the left wing in the Democratic Party. And while the strategy returned Mr. Clinton to office, it also failed to stem - his critics say it may even have aggravated - a slide in the party's fortunes.
Demoralised and fragmented, US liberals have been looking for a cause to restore their vigour, just as conservatives overcame their early-1960s funk to begin their slow rebuilding. The presidential candidacy of Howard Dean brought a spurt of euphoria last year. However, the powers in the party - aided by Mr. Dean's exuberant tendencies - put an end to that.
Now, though, US liberals seemed energised once more. With the executive and legislative branches of the federal government solidly in conservative hands, they are rallying to defend the one branch of government in which they remain strong: the U.S. Supreme Court.
American conservatives have long targeted the Court for a makeover. They say it has been held captive by a liberal wing for the last half-century. Liberal justices, they maintain, have "legislated from the bench," interpreting the constitution so as to augment federal powers, advance civil rights and legalise abortion.
RIGHT-WING JUSTICES
Presidents Reagan and Bush (the elder) began turning the pendulum rightwards during their presidencies, using court vacancies to appoint right-wing justices. Nevertheless, if less liberal than it once was, the court still leans leftwards on key issues like abortion. But now, with the retirement of a moderate justice, U.S. conservatives are delighting at the prospect of bringing the court further in line with their views.
Liberals are drawing a line in the sand. They have everything to lose, and the fight over the new appointment will likely mobilise them in the way nothing other than the Dean candidacy did.
However, by nominating John Roberts to the Court earlier this week, Mr. Bush threw his opponents a curve ball. On the face of it, Mr. Roberts has a stellar legal record and, very significantly, little in the way of a paper trail. Having served as an attorney for most of his career, he has issued few rulings as a judge, and written few articles as a scholar. It will thus be hard for Democrats to portray him as an obvious conservative.
Nevertheless, they will do all they can to expose his shortcomings. If US liberals lose the court to the conservatives, they will become a minority in all branches of the federal government. Thus, the battle over the Supreme Court will be waged with the intensity of a last stand.
It will make for an interesting season in U.S. politics.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI. Mona.
