John Rapley
JULY IS not yet out, and already we have seen two waves - one apparently bungled - of bombing attacks in London, a massive coordinated assault in Egypt, incidents in Turkey and Israel, and almost daily blasts in Iraq. Has the war on terror ramped up? Are we seeing the start of a devastating counter-offensive by Al-Qaeda?
No one really has an answer to this question, because so much about the recent spate of violence remains the stuff of speculation. In the case of the London bombings, it is still not clear who was behind the two sets of attacks, whether they were linked, and indeed whether they were suicide attacks. In the bombings of July 7, it is now known that the bombers died in the explosions. However, London police are still not saying whether the four men intended to die, or had been duped. Equally mysterious is whether there was a connection between the London bombings and the blasts that followed soon after in Egypt. It is clear that each set of bombings was carefully coordinated. But some intelligence experts are suggesting that the two sets were, in turn, centrally planned.
OSAMA BIN LADEN
This line of reasoning, which was developed recently in a Washington Post article, has it that al Qaeda has regrouped. It is widely suspected that Osama bin Laden continues to live at large in the borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, many of his lieutenants now live freely in Pakistani cities, from where they can communicate with cells around the world. Therefore, the suggestion is that Osama, working through his lieutenants, is still issuing orders to a global terror network. So while the Israeli and Iraqi bombings have local causes, the others may represent a global bombing wave, a new campaign in the war.
AL-QAEDA
Many observers scoff at this theory, though. Al-Qaeda, many experts believe, is now a seriously degraded force. Its central command has been decimated, and what remains of it has been hobbled by the relentless harrying of the Americans, in particular. Instead, what has emerged is a fragmented, loosely-connected network of more or less autonomous cells, all inspired by Osama and his message, but each working in isolation.
It is hard to say which scenario is more frightening. On one hand, Osama has become the pre-eminent bogeyman in the West. Thus, after all we had heard about him being cornered and all but defeated, the possibility that he is back in business will strike fear into many hearts.
Still, the enemy you know gives you a target to focus on. A disparate terror network is an even more troubling prospect: it means that each cell must be taken out, one-by one. And no sooner is one eradicated, than another pops up to replace it. It is not likely that the Iraqi and Israeli bombings were directly linked to the British and Egyptian events. In Iraq, while American soldiers continue to suffer from insurgent suicide attacks, many of the bombings target civilians. Their aims seem to be to weaken the government and divide the emergent political system. They are thus not connected to the incidents elsewhere, though they may receive the same inspiration, and are possibly directed by people with a passing familiarity with the Egyptian and British groups.
Egypt, on the other hand, may be different. Egyptian authorities have been hinting that there may be a Pakistani connection, an apparent intimation that Al-Qaeda directed the attacks. They are maintaining that the bombers clearly intended to kill tourists. Whether their intention was to attack Westerners, or rather damage the Egyptian economy by going after its all-important tourist industry, is less clear.
BOMBING GROUPS
As the investigations proceed in the coming weeks, we may begin to get a better picture of the groups behind the bombings, and whether they acted under local or foreign direction. British police, in particular, appear to have made some breakthroughs. However, their resources are apparently stretched to the limit, and if another incident were to occur soon, they would struggle to cope.
Understandably, therefore, Britons remain on edge. But regardless of whether we are seeing the beginning of a coordinated bombing campaign, or merely the 'decentralisation' of terror, the prospects remain disturbing.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government U W I, Mona.
