Garwin Davis, Assistant News Editor
WITH FELLOW Contender Dr. Omar Davies watching from the sidelines, the outcome of the vice-presidential race at next month's PNP conference could well end the leadership ambitions of either Dr. Peter Phillips or Portia Simpson Miller, analysts say.
They note that while both Dr. Phillips and Mrs. Simpson Miller are expected to hold on to their current posts as People's National Party vice-presidents, "the person who gets the most votes will not only have the clear momentum but will also be seen as the likely successor to P.J. Patterson as party president and possibly as Prime Minister of Jamaica." Dr. Davies is not a vice president.
"If Dr. Phillips were to get the most votes, it would change the momentum dramatically," explained Tony Myers, political analyst. "He would be seen as the natural successor to Mr. Patterson ... as the man just waiting to wear the crown. However, if Mrs. Simpson Miller should beat him again then he is a dead duck. This is high stakes game where perception could mean everything."
HIGHEST NUMBER OF CONTENDERS
In addition to the current vice-presidents: Dr. Phillips, Mrs. Simpson Miller, Dr. Karl Blythe and Dr. Paul Robertson, eight other persons have indicated to the party that they will be vying for one of the four spots at the annual conference. The field is said to be the highest since 1967, where 11 persons contested, including Mr. Patterson who reportedly finished last.
In a recent Gleaner-commissioned Don Anderson poll, Mrs. Simpson Miller and Dr. Phillips outdistanced the other leadership contenders, including Dr. Davies and Dr. Blythe, fuelling speculation that the race to succeed Mr. Patterson will be decided between the two.
A member of the Phillips camp, who spoke with The Gleaner last night on the condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the real showdown was with Mrs. Simpson Miller, conceding that "the race would be all but over for whoever gets the least votes."
"If Dr. Phillips were to win and Mrs. Simpson Miller were to finish worse than second, it would be all over for her," he said. "The same scenario would apply if the situation is reverse. The perception game has always been her biggest strength and if she were to lose here then its a whole new ball game."
The Simpson Miller camp, however, appears unperturbed, promising that "we are not about to fall over and concede any ground." "We know what they are trying to do," notes one Simpson Miller insider. "This is a show of strength and we will not retreat or surrender."
The Gleaner understands that on the Simpson Miller slate in the vice-presidential race will be Minister of Agriculture Roger Clarke and Member of Parliament for West Portland Errol Ennis. Minister of State in the Ministry of Tourism Dr. Wykeham McNeill, Minister of State in the Ministry of Water and Housing Harry Douglas and East Portland Councillor Dexter Roland are said to be on the Phillips slate. Dr. Karl Blythe, who reportedly triggered the nomination frenzy, has countered with one of his councillor's Devon Thomas and his constituency secretary Sonia Ramsey.
Political analyst and supporter of Dr. Davies, Dr. D.K. Duncan, said the crowded field vying for the four vice-president posts was a mockery of the democratic process within the PNP and should not have happened. "It is political indecency and a manipulation of the process," he said. "This is no longer about the best person who is capable of being a vice-president. This is not in the best interest of the PNP as only the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) can benefit from this."
