Herbert Lewis, Guest Columnist
Lewis
THE DIRECTOR of the U.S. National Hurricane Centre has warned to expect more hurricanes, large and small in the next 10 to 20 years. He told a congressional panel that he believes the Atlantic Ocean is in a cycle of increased activity which parallels an increase which started in the 1940s and ended in the 1960s.
He said the ensuing lull lasted until 1995, then it is like somebody threw a switch and the number and power of hurricanes increased dramatically.
Under questioning by members of the Senate Commerce subcommittee on disaster prevention and prediction, the director shrugged off the notion that global warming played a role, saying instead it was a natural cycle in the Atlantic Ocean which fluctuates every 25 to 40 years.
IMPROVEMENTS IN
PREDICTING STORMS
Asked to assess the ability to track hurricanes, one expert before the panel said forecasters have grown better at predicting the path of storms over a few days but lag in their ability to gauge its intensity, rainfall distribution and surge in water levels.
It is believed that Katrina's movement was more accurate than usual but the storm grew more intense more quickly than expected as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico causing untold damage and loss of lives.
'Katrina' will not be the last major hurricane to hit a vulnerable area and Jamaica and the rest of the Caribbean should bear this in mind. People need to accept and face reality. If nothing else, Katrina should force governments, emergency managers, private individuals and businesses to reexamine their hurricane preparedness efforts.
SHATTERING LIVES
Floods, fires, earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes can shatter the lives of people anywhere. Jamaica and the Caribbean are no exception and in any case, have been experiencing their fair share of these disasters. These disasters over time have severely affected the economies of our region and have set us back in a number of ways. At times our mainstay, tourism, sugar, banana and spices have suffered serious damage. Not to mention damage to our infrastructure roads and bridges, schools and health facilities.
Then there are the thousands of jobs which are lost when these disasters strike. We all know too well that when there are no jobs, families encounter severe hardships of ever imaginable kind. These hardships place governments under severe pressures to address social issues which many already are incapable of dealing with.
The economies of the region are not in any great shape for a long time now and most are heavily dependent on multinational institutions to be able to put their 'pots' on the fire. Their situation becomes even more critical when faced with problems caused by disasters, the possibility of which we fear every year when hurricane season approaches.
Yes, we get some relief from international agencies and friendly countries when we encounter disasters. But don't get me wrong, we are grateful for such assistance but as independent nations, is this all we can hope for some food, the replacement of a few belongings and some medicine? What about long-term stability for our children in communities when catastrophe strikes? What about help which can ensure full recovery for families whose lives have been shattered? Yes again, I am aware that some relief is provided, but, is this enough?
NEW ORLEANS TO BE REBUILT
President Bush, in an address to the people of the U.S.A. a few days ago, said that New Orleans would be rebuilt before long and I believe that that will happen. Could any of our region's leaders make such a statement and anything happen soon? Sure we don't have the resources of the U.S.A. but how about setting up our own disaster fund for the region to which each country contributes on an annual basis. This fund should never be used for anything else but for the purpose for which it was established. Although there are many factors which go into launching such a project, it all starts with an idea with leaders who see the need and are determined to do something about it I strongly believe that as a region, together we can put in place a disaster fund which can bring help to the needy and hope to the despair.
We need to be more than a disaster emergency response agency, lobbing for, and coordinating relief supplies.
Herbert Lewis is an industrial relations consultant and past president of the Jamaica Employers' Federation.
