Dan Rather
IN CHESS, the King's Gambit is an opening built on the principle of exchanging a short-term concession for long-term gain. A player sacrifices a pawn, but in the bargain obtains a strong position in the centre of the board. Like kings themselves, the King's Gambit fell out of fashion in tournament play around the time of the first World War. But, as we look to Russia, land of so many legendary chess grand-masters, some wonder if Russian President Vladimir Putin might be dusting off the old gambit for the 21st century.
In a landscape where indepen-dent Russian media have become an endangered species and where those who challenge Putin politically are likely to find themselves in prison, many have looked to the endgame - 2008, when Putin's second term comes to a close - as the true test of the Russian leader's intentions. Will he seek changes to the Russian Constitution that would enable him to pursue a third presidential term? And, if he does, would it be a sign that the Russian democratic experiment had all but run its course?
Last week, as reported in The Washington Post, Putin supplied an answer to the first question: On a Russian television call-in show, he said that he would not run again. In 2008, said Putin, "As they say in the military, I will find my place in the ranks." And though Putin further insisted that it would be "inappropriate" to initiate changes in his nation's constitution, the second question - Where does Russian democracy go from here? - remains.
Putin has so dominated the Russian political landscape since he came to power, by force of will and sometimes by just plain force, that it is difficult to imagine what direction Russia will take if and when he steps down. And, after Putin's statements, the reaction of at least one of Putin's political opponents was one of scepticism. Ivan Melnikov, deputy leader of Russia's Communist Party, envisioned a scenario in which the Kremlin would engineer a 'popular' outcry for Putin to run again - to which, as 2008 approached, Putin would eventually accede.
If this came to pass, it would make Putin's words this week a classic King's Gambit: an apparent sacrifice of ambition now in exchange for an apparent popular mandate in the future. But another, perhaps more likely, scenario might be found in the history of how Putin first became president, and in his cryptic remark about finding his place "in the ranks."
Putin was handpicked from obscurity by the first Russian president, Boris Yeltsin - initially as the latest in a string of prime ministers and then as the acting president after Yeltsin's surprise resignation in late 1999. Because of this, Putin was able to run in 2000 as an incumbent. While this history is unlikely to repeat itself verbatim, look for Putin to nudge a personally chosen protege into the political spotlight as his second term draws to a close. Another King's Gambit: Sacrifice the public trappings of power in order to continue to wield it behind the scenes.
Speculation? Sure, but the implications matter. A perceived failure of democracy in the home of the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal would cause foreign-policy ripples from Europe to Asia, from the Middle East to Washington. It has the potential to be what is called a 'game changer' an event that alters the environment in which other situations and their responses are played out.
Is Putin playing the King's Gambit, or recognising that the days of kings are over? At this stage of the game, Russia and the world can only guess.
Dan Rather is a television broadcaster (c) 2005 DJR Inc. Distributed by King Features Syndicate
