HEALTH EXPERTS are warning that it is not a matter of if, but of when, where, and how badly people will be affected, as the global alert for Asian bird flu intensifies. The bird flu virus, which first emerged in intensively reared poultry in South-East Asia some years ago, is set to spread globally.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) is warning that all the conditions for the start of another flu pandemic, like the 10 on record over the last 300 years, are in place, except for the critical factor of efficient human-to-human transmission. Bird-to-human transmission has been established, leading to several deaths mainly among poultry workers.
The last major flu pandemic, which occurred right after the First World War, infected up to one billion people around the world, leading to as many as 100 million deaths. And this was before the age of mass air transport. In one scenario based on the terrorist release of a killer germ in one city, the United States Government has estimated that the infection could saturate that country in only three weeks, largely due to air travel.
The United Nations is coordinating an international pre-emptive response to the threat of a bird flu pandemic. Recently, Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed one of the most senior public health experts at the WHO to coordinate the UN response. The WHO regards the appointment as critical to dealing with the impending threat. The organisation has circulated to all member countries guidelines on actions they need to take. Our own government needs to make these WHO guidelines a matter of public knowledge and action.
We have reported that Minister of Agriculture, Roger Clarke, has instructed the Veterinary Services Division of the Ministry to work closely with the Ministry of Health and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to ensure that no infected birds are imported into the island. As the WHO has pointed out, an adequate response to the threat requires full international collaboration, and co-ordination among agencies and sectors within particular countries.
A crucial part of the whole effort is individual responsibility. The magnitude of the threat, not just to the country but also to the individual, warrants a massive public education campaign around avoiding bird-to-human transmission and human-to-human transmission. While there is a flu vaccine, few countries in the world, including the richest, would have the resources to provide full coverage for its population.
We are not aware that Jamaica has access to any of the only 300 million doses of flu vaccine which are in stock, a supply which cannot be quickly expanded by current production techniques. Prevention is essentially the only viable option and the population must be prepared, as far as possible, to responsibly exercise this option.
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