John Rapley
THINGS COULD hardly have got worse for the White House last week. The U.S. military death toll in Iraq passed the 2,000 mark. The botched nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court was withdrawn. And then, to top it all off, a senior administration aide was indicted on charges of lying to a grand jury.
All of these developments have helped drive George W. Bush's approval ratings to the lowest level of his presidency. There is little sign of relief on the horizon. Disapproval on Iraq will scarcely reverse soon. And while many in the administration heaved sighs of relief over the indictment of I. Lewis 'Scooter' Libby, it could, after all, have been much worse, the Government is hardly out of the woods. The investigation continues. In particular, President Bush's right-hand man, Karl Rove, remains a target, and might yet be charged with wrongdoing himself.
STRUGGLE
The president's travails, compounded by other problems among senior Republicans, have deprived him of any remaining control he had over Washington's legislative agenda. Given that the constitution bars them from running for a third term of office, second-term presidents always struggle not to become 'lame duck' governors who are marking time before they finally retire. Mr. Bush is very near to becoming one. Faced with this avalanche of adversity, he has apparently decided to retreat to safe ground and circle the wagons.
Earlier, his nomination of the low-profile Ms. Miers to the Supreme Court apparently reflected a desire to avoid a drawn-out fight with Senate Democrats. Although the Senate - which must approve presidential nominations - is controlled by the Republicans, Democrats have enough seats to 'filibuster', using procedural tactics to tie up the chamber. In particular, there are no time-limits on senator's speeches. Thus, they can literally talk the Senate to a standstill if they so chose.
Faced with this threat, the Republican leadership has said it might resort to a "nuclear option". This would entail altering Senate rules to block filibusters. But, that is a risky option, and would poison relations between the parties. It is in the president's interest not to antagonise Democrats if he wants his legislative agenda to advance smoothly. Besides, Mr. Bush staked his legitimacy on the claim that he was a uniter, not a divider, and would restore harmony to Washington.
A CLEANER WHITE HOUSE?
But then, he also said he would operate a cleaner White House than previous ones - a thinly-veiled reference to the Clinton administration that preceded his. That claim now looks weak, to say the least. And the Miers nomination turned out to be a serious misjudgment. Conservative Republicans condemned it, and organised a campaign to force Mr. Bush to withdraw it.
Now that he is on the ropes, Mr. Bush has apparently decided he needs to shore up support on his right wing. His substitution of Samuel Alito for Ms. Miers as his Supreme Court nominee delighted his base. Here is an obvious conservative with an unambiguous track record, one who looks likely to advance the right's judicial agenda: opposition to abortion and gay marriage, support for public prayer, and suspicion of a strong federal government.
Mr. Bush's tactic is risky. It is true that pleasing his conservative base has worked for him so far, helping move Washington ever further into Republican hands. And it is also likely that a quid pro quo for the staunch support conservatives gave Mr. Bush during his two election campaigns was a string of solidly conservative nominations.
However, pleasing his supporters alone could well alienate both the left and the centre. Either outcome would be problematic. Losing the centre could strengthen the hand of the Democratic Party ahead of next year's elections. In the past, that hasn't been a problem for Mr. Bush, because turnout rates among moderate voters are low.
However, angering the left could cause his party problems down the road. In recent years, the Democratic base, demoralised by the rightward drift of its party, has stayed home on election-day in greater numbers than have Republicans. A newly energised left could restore the party's competitiveness.
For now, Mr. Bush appears to have bought himself time with his constituency. But it remains to be seen if this will prove to be anything more than a breather.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI. Mona.
