John Rapley
NOBODY EVER accused Israeli politics of being dull. Just weeks ago the Labour Party replaced its leader, Shimon Peres, with a more left-wing man. Not to be outdone, the prime minister, Ariel Sharon, this week announced that he was leaving his Likud Party and striking out on his own.
His departure effectively brought down his government. He thus requested that Israel's president dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections. But in a compromise with the opposition, the president agreed to postpone a new poll until late March. This will give the Likud Party time to select a new leader and, it hopes, take a bit of wind out of Mr. Sharon's ample political sails.
Mr. Sharon apparently decided to gamble. Supported by Labour, but opposed by many hardliners in his Likud Party, he pressed ahead with the withdrawal from the Gaza Strip earlier this year. Although popular in the wider society, the move was opposed by many in his party, who then jockeyed to unseat him.
In part, Likud's infighting reflected internal divisions over the future of Israel. Hardliners have come to see Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories as integral to Israel, and oppose any withdrawal. Mr. Sharon, by contrast, is a pragmatist when it comes to strategy.
BRUTAL
On tactics, he is as hardline at times, as brutal as they come. But he has always seen settlements as security measures. Thus, if he believes that withdrawing from them can enhance Israel's security, he will do it.
In addition, a longstanding rivalry between Mr. Sharon and a former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, further divided Likud. Mr. Netanyahu threw his lot in with the hardliners and left the government over the Gaza Strip withdrawal. Since then, he has been trying to orchestrate Mr. Sharon's downfall. 'Bibi' as Mr. Netanyahu is known in Israel, can match Mr. Sharon when it comes to Machiavellian calculation: he appeared to judge that he stood more chance at power if he threw in his lot with the party rebels.
So, rather than fight the opposition in his own party, Mr. Sharon opted to bank his political support and form a new one, which he is calling National Responsibility. Already, more than a dozen members of the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) have left Likud to join him. And initial poll results suggest that the gamble may pay handsome dividends. If an election were held today, National Responsibility would win about a quarter of the Knesset's seats, making it the largest faction.
However, given Israel's politics, the four months between now and election-day will seem like an eternity. Much could happen. And if history is any guide, some of Mr. Sharon's burst of support will dissipate, and old voting patterns will return.
Nevertheless, both the Israeli left and the Palestinian leadership are welcoming this development with cautious optimism. All indications are that Likud will be reduced to a rump in Parliament. Labour, on the other hand, will almost certainly hold its own.
PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD
Thus, a post-election coalition uniting National Responsibility to Labour and centre-left parties looms as a real possibility. This would probably be a strong government, united around an agenda to recognise some form of Palestinian statehood. Some observers are even venturing that Israel could withdraw to the borders it held before the 1967 war, when it occupied the Palestinian territories.
Other combinations are possible, given the fragmented nature of the Israeli Knesset. What does seem likely, at least for now, is that hardliners may secure control of Likud, but at the cost of their further marginalisation in national politics. Equally, Israel's religious parties may yet secure a place in a post-election government; yet they, too, may have been weakened by the emergence of an organised 'centre'.
If nothing else, the events of the next few months will prove entertaining. After all, the Palestinians will be holding their own elections in January. So we will get a clearer picture of both sides' potential negotiating parties early in the new year.
It is too soon to invest too much hope in the prospect of peace. Mr. Sharon, after all, is no friend to the Palestinians. Nevertheless, it may be reasonable to conclude that the peace process has just taken a turn for the better.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
