Anthony Myers, ContributorIn our first parliamentary general election, December 14, 1944, the leader of the People's National Party, (PNP) Norman Washington Manley, lost his seat. He contested the St. Andrew Eastern constituency, polling 4,858 votes to the Labour Party (JLP) candidate, Edward H. Fagan's 5,253. Gerald A. L. Mair, representing the Jamaica Democratic Party (JDP), polled 3,135 and Mary L. Morris Knibb, Independent, 269.
It is interesting to note that on the night of the election, the preliminary count had the PNP winning five seats to the JLP 22 and IND five. However, when the final count was completed, the returning officer for the constituency of Manchester Southern declared the JLP candidate Lawton C. Bloomfield the winner. The PNP candidate Wendel W. Benjamin requested a magisterial recount and was awarded the seat on the result of the recount.
Lawton Bloomfield was not prepared to accept the findings of the magisterial recount and challenged the recount in the courts. After a dramatic period covering some six months, Lawton C. Bloomfield was finally declared the winner by the presiding judge.
The question must, therefore, be: Was the PNP a recognised opposition at the time? The answer is yes. This was due to the fact that while Wendel Benjamin (PNP) and Lawton C. Bloomfield (JLP) were having their day in court, Fred L. B. Evans, affectionately called 'Slave Boy' Evans, who ran as an independent candidate in the constituency of Eastern Westmoreland defeating his nearest rival, John O. Ramsay (JLP), crossed the floor and joined the PNP, thus ensuring that the PNP had five seats in Parliament.
Trends continue
Note: I have decided to look at the voting pattern in the constituencies of the four contenders for the leadership of the PNP. The constituencies are St. Andrew East Central, St. Andrew South, St. Andrew South West and Westmoreland Central.
The St. Andrew East Central constituency was created in 1966, when, by the Constituencies (Boundaries) Order 1966 under Section 67 of the Constitution of Jamaica, the number of constituencies in the parish of St. Andrew was increased from six to eight. Of the eight parliamentary general elections in St. Andrew East Central between 1967-2002 and two by-elections, February 20, 1969 and April 26, 1994, the PNP successfully contested all.
In 1976, Donald K. Duncan, by polling 9,301 votes (68.8 per cent) defeated JLP candidate Lloyd Williams by a massive 5,092 votes. D. K. Duncan retained the seat for the PNP in 1980 by an absolute majority of 2,133 in spite of the JLP dominance in the general election, winning 51 seats to the PNP nine. With the PNP not contesting the snap parliamentary general election of 1983, the JLP candidate, Leslie Lloyd, was elected unopposed by acclamation to represent the East Central St. Andrew constituency. It is interesting to note that it was the said Leslie Lloyd who later switched to the PNP and successfully contested the Central Kingston constituency in 1993.
In 1989 and 1993, under the stewardship of Arthur Jones, the PNP won the East Central St. Andrew constituency by massive majorities: 1989 7,188; 1993 10,333. Voter turnout was 75.9 per cent and 78.5 per cent respectively.
In 1994, Arthur Jones was forced to resign from Parliament due to ill health. In a by-election, April 26, 1994, which was boycotted by the JLP, Dr. Peter Phillips, a former general secretary of the PNP, devastated the Republican Party candidate, James Francis and Noel A. Blake (UPP) by a massive absolute majority of 10,094 (95.2 per cent). In 1997, Dr. Peter Phillips once again retained the seat by a wide margin, polling 7,811 votes to Godfrey McAllister (JLP) 2,455 and Errol Stephenson, NDM (421) an absolute majority of 4,935 (73.1 per cent).
PETER PHILLIPS' CONSTITUENCY
OCTOBER 16, 2002, Parliamentary General Election results for St. Andrew East Central were not as impressive as 1989, 1993 and 1997. In spite of the strong support the PNP received in the Maxfield Park electoral division, there were significant increases in support for the JLP in the Hagley Park and Cassia Park electoral divisions. Consequently, the PNP candidate, Dr. Peter Phillips, only polled 6,580 votes to his JLP opponent Claude Riddell's 3,467 a majority of 3,113, which exceeds the 1980 margin over the JLP by 903.
The incumbent MP should take note of the strong support enjoyed by the JLP in the Cassia Park division and move swiftly to provide tangible support for the residents right across the political divide in the form of better roads, water supply, electricity and garbage collection.
Lest the PNP should forget, the JLP dominance of North East St. Ann started in the Exchange electoral division as was revealed in the March 2001 By-Election. When the results for the North East St. Ann October 16, 2002 Parliamentary General Election were analysed, the JLP had won by a majority of 1,174 votes, which was only eight votes more than the JLP majority in the Exchange electoral division which is one of five within the constituency of North East St. Ann.
It can therefore be said without fear of contradiction, that had the Exchange division not performed so strongly in support of the JLP, the results could have been decided by a magisterial recount.
OMAR DAVIES' CONSTITUENCY
UNLIKE ST. Andrew South West, the JLP has only tasted victory in St. Andrew South once. Of the eight contested parliamentary general elections, 1967-2002, the PNP won seven to the JLP's one.
When the St. Andrew South West constituency was created in 1967, Eugene C. L. Parkinson (JLP) ended the PNP Vernon Arnett's political career when he defeated him by a majority of 638 votes. The tables were, however, turned in 1972, when Anthony Spaulding ended E. C. L. Parkinson's political career in an extremely close election, a majority of only 102 for
the PNP.
Since 1976-2002, the PNP has dominated South St. Andrew under the stewardship of Anthony 'Trench Town Rock' Spaulding, 1976 and 1980; Hartley E. Jones, 1989 and 1993, and incumbent MP Omar Davies, 1994, 1997 and 2002.
Based on the results 1976-2002,
St. Andrew South is indeed PNP territory.
PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER'S CONSTITUENCY
SOUTH WEST St. Andrew was one of the 13 newly-created constituencies in 1959 when the number of constituencies moved from the 32, fixed in 1944, to 45.
Of the 10 contested parliamentary general elections in St. Andrew South Western, the JLP won four times to the PNP's six. The JLP dominated the early elections, winning in 1959, 1962, 1967 and 1972. David C. Tavares (JLP), after a close 242 majority over Frank Spaulding (PNP) in 1959, had comfortable majorities 2,962, in 1962 and 3,333 in 1967 over Frank Spaulding (PNP) and Hopeton Caven (PNP), respectively. Wilton Hill was the last JLP candidate to have won South West St. Andrew as he polled 7,261 votes in 1972, to defeat PNP Jason Gordon who polled 4,020.
During the period 1976-2002, Portia Simpson Miller reigned supreme as she transformed a once-JLP stronghold into PNP territory. Her victories have been mind-boggling: In 1976, she had a majority of 9,208; 1980 12,668; 1989 18,181; 1993 16,357 ; 1997 14,879; and, in 2002: 9,098. See related stories in NEWS section.
KARL BLYTHE'S CONSTITUENCY
Westmoreland Central was one of the 13 newly-created constituencies in 1959. Of the 10 contested parliamentary general elections, 1959-2002, in West-moreland Central, the PNP won nine times to the JLP's one. However, the JLP was in charge during the period 1980-989, based on the fact that the PNP did not contest the 1983 snap election.
From February 1989, Dr. Karl Blythe took charge and has had comfortable margins of victory in 1989, 1993 and 1997. However, the results of the 2002 election saw a significant decrease in support, the margin of victory 2,785. This majority was dramatically reduced in the June 19, 2003 Parish Council Election to a mere 254. There has to be cause for concern.
- Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician/political analyst
