Arnold Bertram, Contributor
IN LESS than 100 days, some 4,000 delegates of the People's National Party (PNP) will meet to elect a new president who, after endorsement by the party's Parliamentary group, will become the seventh Prime Minister of independent Jamaica.
The last time the delegates elected a president was in March 1992 when Portia Simpson Miller went up against P.J. Patterson.
Then, as now, the opinion polls confirmed Simpson Miller's popularity. The Stone poll published in The Daily Gleaner of March 11, 1992, showed Simpson Miller ahead of Patterson by 42 per cent to 22 per cent. (See Figure 1)
The same poll also showed that Simpson Miller enjoyed some 25 per cent support from Jamica Labour Party (JLP) voters.
On the basis of his polls, Carl Stone, who had emerged as Jamaica's most eminent pollster, described Patterson as "by far the weakest of the alternatives," and predicted that "if he were to get the leadership of the PNP, Seaga would chew him up at the polls."
On the day of reckoning, Patterson, with 2,322 votes, routed Simpson Miller who managed only 756. In three contests against Patterson, Seaga fared no better and has since gone into retirement.
POWER OF PNP DELEGATES
Today, on the basis of the Anderson polls, which show 57 per cent popular support for Simpson Miller, many people are being misled into thinking that this guarantees her victory in the presidential elections.
We only need to remind ourselves of how wrong the Stone Polls were in 1992 when it attempted to substitute popular support for delegate power.
It is the PNP delegates who will be voting in the presidential elections and it is their views which count.
Who are these delegates? At the centre of the delegate body is the approximately 300-member-National Executive Council (NEC).
The NEC includes the officers, life members, Parliamentarians, as well as local and foreign-based affiliates (women, youth, National Workers' Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and United States).
It also includes constituency representatives and 60 members directly elected by the delegates islandwide. This group constitutes the centre of the party and overwhelmingly supports Phillips to succeed Patterson as the next president of the party.
The other 3,700 delegates are elected by party members organised in groups islandwide.
Since the inception of the party, these delegates have exercised real constitutional power and are central to the decision-making process within the party at every level.
The delegates of the PNP are drawn from all social classes. Particularly among the older comrades, there is a strong sense of pride in the history and traditions of the party.
It is here that we find some of the most sophisticated practitioners of the art of politics, and a sense of obligation in defending the interests of the party.
Where they differ from the popular masses is in their ability to assess the capacity of each candidate based on years of association and intimate knowledge of their contribution to party and state.
They remember the struggles of the party during the 17 years it took before 1955 when Norman Manley finally defeated Bustamante's paternalism and cult of the personality in order to establish capacity, programme and strategy as the criteria for national political leadership.
They are convinced that education, training, a clear grasp of international affairs and thorough understanding of the complexities of modern governance are non-negotiable in the person they elect as their leader.
True enough, the party, like all other national institutions, is experiencing some erosion of its traditional values. Political opportunists of every shade are now finding their way into the delegate body, with the objective of advancing personal interests.
However, the overwhelming majority can be relied on to place the interest of their party and nation first.
POLITICAL AMBUSH?
These delegates are not likely to be impressed by any suggestion that JLP voters can be persuaded to serve the interest of the PNP. Most are wary of the large percentage of JLP voters who contributed to the 57 per cent popular support which the Anderson polls showed that Simpson Miller currently enjoys.
For these delegates, the proximity of 'Labourites' to PNP leaders can only mean the possibility of political ambush and the campaign preceding the by-elections for the Alexandria division last week confirmed their worst fears.
On Saturday night, before the by-election in the Alexandria division, 'Team Portia' converted the campaign to a mass rally for their presidential hopeful.
POPULAR SUPPORT NOT SAME AS DELEGATE POWER
The enthusiastic presence of JLP supporters at the rally was enough to convince the uninitiated that this would translate into JLP support for the PNP candidate. On election day, the 'Labourites' behaved as they have always done and will always do. In short, they voted unanimously for the JLP.
The clear lesson to be learnt is that while JLP voters will support one PNP leader over another, in the general elections when Bruce Golding will be up against the new president of the PNP, they are going to vote for their party.
The PNP masses need to remind themselves that it is not personalities who win elections for the PNP, it is superior organisation, programmes and strategy which a united PNP takes to the political battle field.
There has been no poll done of the PNP delegates who will be the voters in the presidential elections.
To date, there has only been one indicator of how the delegates are likely to vote and that was in the party's regional elections held in the first week of September 2005.
In those elections, both Phillips and Simpson Miller had their slate of candidates competing for the sixty members who would be elected directly from the constituencies to the NEC.
Of the 60 members elected, 34 were from Phillips' 'Solid as a Rock' team. The delegates also voted for six regional chairmen.
Fenton Ferguson (Region Two) and Horace Dalley (Region Four) were two winning candidates from the Phillips' team.
Simpson Miller used her influence in Region Three to secure the election of Omar Davies, which raised questions of a possible alliance between the two in which Davies would clearly be the subordinate.
In Region Five, the election of Michael Peart owed more to his standing in the region than to patronage of Davies who he supports. Simpson Miller's protégé, Mark Campbell, was elected in Region One in the absence of a candidate from Phillips' team.
Derrick Kellier, who is yet to declare his support, triumphed in Region Six where Phillips has the support of the majority of the delegates.
Hence, on the only occasion where the delegates have spoken, more of them voiced their support for Phillips than for the other three candidates put together. It doesn't matter what the opinion polls are saying, it is the PNP delegate power which counts.
WHAT ARE DELEGATES LOOKING FOR IN THEIR NEW LEADER?
The delegates have shown a certain consistency in voting for leaders with a proven track record of experience and capacity, and with a vision and programme around which they can unite all social classes for national development.
They elected Norman Manley in 1938, Michael Manley in 1969, and P.J. Patterson in 1992. All three were distinguished for capacity and vision. All three enthusiastically communicated to the electorate a programme for national development. It is unlikely that the delegates will act outside of their established traditions in electing the fourth president of the party.
This time around, the question of leadership assumes extremely critical proportions. The opinion polls show the urgency with which we need a development programme which focuses on a sustained expansion of the economy as the basis for creating jobs and a more socially-cohesive society.
Jamaica is depending on the delegates of the PNP to use their power to elect a leader capable of uniting the country around this objective.
