Cedric Wilson, Guest Columnist
Wilson
POLITICS, SOME people say, is the 'art of the impossible'. Yet, very few, if any, would disagree that for better or for worse, there is no other sphere in life that the actions of so few affect the lives of so many. No wonder the question of politics has occupied the minds of thinkers from Plato to Wilmot Perkins. Certainly, this explains the level of interest that is being generated between the three top contenders for party leadership within the People's National Party (PNP).
A battle is on in earnest between Portia Simpson Miller, the populist; Peter Phillips, a man who has a reputation for hard work; and, Omar Davies, economist who claims he has the answer for the country's prosperity. The November/ December Stone poll puts Simpson Miller a clear three percentage points ahead of Phillips who has 27.3 per cent support and Davies trails a long distance behind with 5.2 per cent. While this may be so, the outcome of the leadership race may not necessarily reflect the situation in the polls. The final decision rests with the 3,000 plus PNP delegates that will vote.
CAN OMAR DAVIES DO THE JOB?
As the race heats up, increasingly the question is being asked if Omar Davies has a chance and whether he can do the job? The two biggest issues facing the country at this time are the problems of economic stagnation and rising crime. Arguably, both are related. If the crime is contained, all things being equal, there should be a surge in business confidence and increased investment that will translate to growth. On the other hand, unless there is sustained growth, unemployment levels particularly among youths, will remain high and this will feed the narcotic trade and crime.
Mr. Davies, by virtue of his profession, should, more than any other contender, bring to the pinnacle of leadership, his knowledge and skill in economics. But he has been Finance and Planning Minister for more than a decade and, while it is true that over the last four to five years the economy has achieved some measure of macroeconomic stability, the national debt has increased and economic growth has been sluggish at best. Apart from juggling the balls of inflation, interest rate and inflation it is not clear what will be done differently to achieve genuine growth.
POSITIVE ELEMENTS
IN DAVIES' CAMPAIGN
One of the positive elements in Davies' 'Campaign for Prosperity' is the vision it projects for education. There are no two ways about it the current approach to education is sadly lacking and if the country is to grow, the matter of equipping the young must be emphasised. As such, Davies addresses an issue that is of immense importance.
Radio talk show host Wilmot Perkins is extremely popular despite his grim views about life in Jamaica. It, therefore, seems plausible that his popularity is associated with the fact that his views strike a resonant chord among his listeners. Central to the Perkins discussion is the hypothesis that virtually all of Jamaica's problems have their roots in politics whether it is social or economic, whether it is bad roads or corruption. Assuming that the Perkinsian hypothesis is correct, it may therefore be argued that the person most suited for leadership is the contender that is non-political in his orientation. To borrow from Khrushchev, a former president of the Soviet Union, "politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river". There is a sense that Davies is not the type to make promises he doesn't stand a fair chance of delivering. In this respect, he is not considered to be a politician.
In addition, he displays a capacity for making tough decisions and sticking to them, sometimes even disregarding good advice. This characteristic is a double-edged sword. For while it may lead to decisions that may serve the country's best interest, on the other hand, it may amount to political insensitivity that could undermine the foundation of the best of progammes conceived. Evidence of his political insensitivity was apparent in April 1999 when he insisted on a gas tax that sparked islandwide demonstrations and resulted in the locking down of the country for several days. Glimpses of this surfaced again when recently he had to cut ties with Alston Stewart who was serving as the chairman of his 'Campaign for Prosperity.' It is difficult to believe that Omar Davies could not see before hand that having Mr. Stewart in that key position in his leadership campaign would raise serious questions among Jamaicans. Of course, it is no secret Mr. Stewart was embroiled earlier this year in a nasty controversy when he was the chairman of the National Solid Waste Management Authority.
POLITICAL TRUTH VS
POLITICAL CORRECTNESS
Davies has been known to speak truthfully on matters pertaining to government and the economy. However, political truth is not the same as political correctness and this has, on occasions, created unease within his party. Like all the other contenders, Davies has weaknesses and yet he possesses certain attributes that might just be what is needed at this point in Jamaica's politics. Once, Charles de Gaulle, a former President of France, was accused of being a very good soldier and a very bad politician. De Gaulle responded by saying "politics is too serious a matter to be left to politicians." Davies raises the hope of a leadership that is tough and honest.
But can he pull it off? That is difficult. It is very likely that a general election will follow close on the heels of the PNP leadership selection. Politics, above all, is about winning and the delegates know that the only effective weapon a 'non-politician' has on a political platform is an unequivocal record of success and that is hard to prove for the Jamaican economy.
Cedric Wilson is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. Send your comments to: conoswil@hotmail.com.
