A return to some form of normality in Iraq remains elusive despite yesterday's announcement by U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld of a cutback in combat troops by early next year.
Almost simultaneous with his announcement of the 7,000-troop cutback from the baseline 138,000, large demonstrations broke out across the country to denounce parliamentary elections that protesters charged were rigged in favour of the main religious Shi'ite coalition.
With as many as 20,000 people demonstrating afternoon prayers in southern Baghdad yesterday, that country remains largely unsettled.
The turnout in Iraq's parliamentary elections defied expectations. Although final results have yet to be announced, it was clear that Sunnis, who had boycotted the elections earlier this year, turned out enthusiastically for this round of voting. Whether this represents a weakening of the Sunni-dominated insurgency, or a shift to new tactics by letting the election go ahead, it does appear that Sunnis have now joined Iraq's new political process. And yesterday's demonstrations highlight the extent to which they want a voice in the political parliamentary system.
To the extent "normal" can be used to describe anything in present-day Iraq, this represents a move towards normalisation of the new regime. Just what that will entail remains to be seen. Negotiations will now begin among the many factions jockeying for power in Iraq. While three broad streams Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish dominate Iraq's politics, divisions within them are numerous. Various coalition possibilities present themselves. However, one way or another, Iraq is likely to become more religious in its politics, and also somewhat closer to Iran.
Beyond those generalities, it is difficult to make confident predictions. But at least U.S. President George W. Bush can take comfort in some good news. The headlines from Iraq continue to be generally bad, and the domestic spying scandal hasn't made his job any easier. Nevertheless, with more Iraqi armed units reaching combat readiness, and now good news on the electoral front in terms of citizen participation, there are at least bits of evidence he can use to bolster his claims back home that the U.S.'s Iraq strategy is working.
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