John Rapley
FOR MORE than a century, Canadian federal elections have followed a fairly regular pattern. For long spells, the Liberals dominate. Indeed, so common are Liberal governments in Ottawa that they have come to be known as the "natural party of government".
Historically, the Liberals have succeeded in building coalitions among Canada's many ethnic, linguistic and religious factions. With their traditional strength among Catholics and immigrants, and their ability to straddle the country's language divide, the Liberals have usually been the only party able to amass support in all regions of the country.
However, as happens when a party remains in office too long, sloth and corruption eventually settle in. Canadian voters then rebel against the Liberals, throw them out, and bring some kind of Conservative-led coalition to power.
Returning to the polls for the second time in under two years, Canadians look ready to do the same thing again. Tired of Liberal inertia and a growing whiff of corruption, voters will probably end the Liberals' 13-year spell in office. In that respect, they are preserving the old pattern.
Yet in another, this election may offer a significant novelty. Conventional political commentary on Canada distills the country's electoral blocs into five regions: Ontario, Quebec, the Atlantic provinces, the prairies and British Columbia. As a rule, only the Liberals have consistently maintained a presence in all five (albeit a weak one on the prairies).
BLOC QUEBECOIS
The Conservatives, by contrast, have seldom been strong and often, like now, been absent in Quebec. The Bloc Quebeçois is confined to Quebec, and the left-leaning New Democratic Party has only here and there been represented east of Ontario. Taken all together, that has meant that to unseat the Liberals, electoral coalitions have had to be formed. And the rule has been that the Conservatives have forged some kind of alliance with Quebec nationalists the sort of people who support the Bloc Quebeçois to pick up support in Quebec.
MARRIAGES OF CONVENIENCE
But given the fraught nature of these marriages of convenience, they have tended to be unstable and short-lived. Western Anglophones and Quebec separatists make strange bedfellows. They agree on little more than the desire to weaken the federal government. After a few years, by which time the Liberals have usually renewed themselves, the coalition breaks up, and the Liberals return to office.
Monday's election looks increasingly likely to produce a Liberal defeat. Party insiders have even begun to talk about the period of renewal that will follow. But what is interesting is that no formal alliance has been struck between the Conservatives and Quebec nationalists this time around.
If they are to have any hope of forming a majority government, the Conservatives will need to pick up seats in Quebec. This has always been a tall, often impossible order. With the Liberals having locked up the federalist vote, and the Bloc the separatist vote, Conservative inroads have been hard to make. However, this time around, polls are suggesting that the Conservatives may be winning support not in Liberal ridings (constituencies), but in some belonging to the Bloc.
If they make this breakthrough, they could end up being an unusually strong Conservative government. With no favours to repay to separatists, nor concessions to make to Bloc politicians in return for their tacit support, the Conservatives might enjoy a freer hand than their predecessors have been able to secure.
However, if they fall short of a majority, the Conservatives will probably be back to horse-trading with separatists. This scenario is probably the best the Liberals can hope for now. Then, at least, they'd probably be looking at a wilderness retreat of relatively short duration.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona
