Arnold Bertram, Contributor
AS THE People's National Party (PNP) presidential election enters its final phase, there are contrasting signs of euphoria and fatigue.
The Blythe campaign has almost disappeared from the radar screen and Omar Davies' 'Campaign for Prosperity' is clearly not prospering.
While logic would suggest a merger with Peter Phillips, political practice is not always logical.
At the other end of the spectrum, the two main contenders, Peter Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller, went head to head on Sunday last, both pulling out all the stops to get the attention of the public and to parade delegate support. Phillips went to the National Arena for the official launch of his campaign, while Simpson Miller chose Clarendon as the venue for meeting her supporters. Golding and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) should take note of the fact that the PNP has enough national support to mount two major rallies on the same day.
THE MAIN EVENT
However, even as Phillips and Simpson Miller occupied centre stage, it was Phillips' launch that emerged as the main event, showing the quality and depth of the 'Solid as a Rock' political machine, which brought delegates and members of the PNP together, with supporters drawn from all age groups and social classes, for a memorable occasion.
While most observers were impressed by the size of the crowd, which was bigger than many annual conferences over the last several years, the more discerning focused on the broad representation of social classes.
The business fraternity was present, including two elder statesmen of the insurance industry who have not been seen at a political rally for three decades. As the quality of the evening unfolded, it led some to reminisce, and others to declare that they were witnessing the start of the renewal of the political process they had first experienced with Michael Manley between 1969 and 1972. Young professionals and students attending their first political rally were completely taken by the professionalism of the three-hour production, as well as the message from Peter Phillips which inspired hope and confidence.
This was the People's National Party at its best, and its centre and soul were at the National Arena. Political renewal comes in cycles. The masses gather in large numbers when they sense the possibility of profound changes, and are looking for new foundations which can lead to a new kind of government and the possibility of a new way of living.
PUBLIC SCRUTINY AND NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
In countries like Jamaica, where the integrity and independence of public institutions are yet to be established, the process of national development rests to a large degree on the capacity and programmatic platform of its leaders. It is, therefore, of the utmost national importance that we subject all leadership contenders to the most rigorous examination of their record, their ideas and their programmes.
The next leader of the PNP and Prime Minister of Jamaica will have to contend with extremely formidable challenges at home and abroad. First is the unity of the party and the country. Equally pressing is the Herculean task of simultaneously satisfying high expectations with extremely limited resources. Then there is the matter of adjustments to the fiscal and monetary policies to ensure a reduction in interest rates and the expansion of investment. On the social side, we are yet to get right the link between tertiary education and training, on the one hand, and the labour needs of the economy on the other. An accumulated social deficit, represented by a growing army of under-educated and unemployed youth, poses an increasing threat to public order and social stability.
At a regional level, Jamaica's entry into the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME) requires technical guidance and oversight, and the new Prime Minister will be expected to chair the regional negotiating committee. Internationally, the ball game is just as complex and intellectually demanding.
It is against this background that the organisation of the rescheduled Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) forum for Portia Simpson Miller raises many questions. She successfully evaded any serious discussion that the PSOJ might have planned, by disregarding the 20-minute allocation for opening remarks, and read instead a 65-minute presentation. Those who remained found that little time was left for serious questions to be asked or answered. In the end, just four questions were asked and none were related to the economy. Still, her cheering gallery, conspicuously positioned in the first two rows, succeeded in leading a standing ovation.
While her handlers may consider this a tactical triumph, the electorate might not be as convinced that Simpson Miller has yet faced the scrutiny that any aspiring party leader and Prime Minister should be subjected to.
THE PNP AND THE MIDDLE CLASS
Unbelievably, there are those who dare to suggest that the PNP should bring to an end its fine tradition of leadership firmly rooted in the most advanced and the most capable members of the party. The fact is that the PNP has never felt anything but a sense of pride in the leadership given to the party and the nation by Norman Manley, Michael Manley and P.J. Patterson. It is hardly accidental that the JLP has joined the PNP and the rest of the world in looking for the same leadership qualities in its leaders.
Social policy since 1944 has been based on the need to promote social mobility through access to education and culture. As a result, every Jamaican family has sacrificed to educate their children as a means of ensuring their social advancement. Each one of the four aspirants for leadership of the PNP has endeavoured to the best of their abilities to educate themselves, and this is something the party is proud of. Neither ignorance nor poverty is a virtue. They are conditions of human life that should be eradicated in the shortest time possible, not pandered to. The expansion of the middle class is a major achievement and testimony to the advance of education and culture. The PNP needs to recapture its middle-class base of support.
WHO WINS ELECTIONS?
Despite the evidence of political practice, the illusion still persists that elections are won by personalities and slogans. While there might have been some element of truth in the politics of colonial Jamaica, the electorate since independence has been far more sophisticated.
The available evidence indicates that in the post-independence period, the unity of the party and its programmatic platform have been the decisive factors in electoral contests.
The PNP, after winning in 1955 and 1959 and successfully modernising the Jamaican economy, divided on the issue of Federation and lost the elections of 1962. It divided again on economic policy in general and land ownership in particular and lost the elections of 1967. It reunited under Michael Manley and won in 1972 and 1976. It divided bitterly over ideology after 1976 and lost overwhelmingly in 1980. After the PNP victory in 1989, it is P.J. Patterson's remarkable capacity for maintaining the unity of the party which has guaranteed its dominance. The party has not lost one general election under his leadership.
On the other hand, the JLP, which led the country in the first decade of independence, split into three factions by the elections of 1972 and lost. The ideological divide in the PNP created the basis for the overwhelming JLP victory in 1980. Since then, internal divisions have taken on the proportions of a virtual civil war within that party. As a consequence, they have not won a general election since.
The electorate in independent Jamaica clearly has strong reservations about voting for a divided party. It is unity, programme and leadership which are the decisive factors, not personality and slogan. Depending on who is elected as the next leader, the PNP can either rebuild its internal cohesion or fragment even worse than the JLP.
Arnold Bertram, an historian and former parliamentarian, is at present chairman of Research and Project Development Ltd. Comments may be sent to: redev@cwjamaica.com.
