Kevin Sangster, ContributorTHE GUESSING game is now over. Prime Minister Percival James Noel Patterson will, after 14 consecutive years at the crease, demit office as president of the People's National Party (PNP) on Saturday, February 25, 2006, consequent upon the election of his successor by approximately 3,500 PNP delegates. Some time after that, but before April 1, 2006, he will relinquish the post as prime minister.
Unlike previous succession processes, when the party president would have clearly or seemingly anointed his successor, it has never been patently clear whether Mr. Patterson has been giving his blessings to any one of the four candidates vying to replace him.
NO CLEARLY IDENTIFIED SUCCESSOR
We have seen instances in recent times wherein delegates have defied the wishes of their party leader, essentially exercising their desire without the interference or guidance of the party leader. Mr. Patterson might have realised this potential situation some time ago and thereby refused to put himself in such an awkward position.
As a result of there not being a clearly identified successor to Mr. Patterson, the succession process for party president and prime minister may not be all that smooth.
Perhaps such is the reason behind Mr. Patterson wishing to hang around for just a little while longer as prime minister after relinquishing the post of PNP president.
As things stand, it is very likely that we could have a situation where the party president, though hoping to become prime minister as well, is denied such an appointment and someone else becomes so appointed.
The likely scenario here is that Mrs. Simpson Miller, said to be the front runner for the presidency, becomes the next president of the PNP, but Dr. Peter Phillips, who now has the support of the majority of his parliamentary colleagues to become PNP president and prime minister, continues to command the majority support of his PNP parliamentary colleagues when the appointment of the prime minister is to be done.
To paraphrase Section 70 (1) of the Jamaica Constitution, whenever a Prime Minister is to be appointed, it is the Governor-General who, acting in his discretion, appoints the Member of Parliament (MP) who the Governor-General believes is best able to command the confidence of the majority of the members of the House of Representatives.
This section differs somewhat from Section 80 (2) of the Constitution respecting the appointment of the Leader of the Opposition. According to Section 80 (2), the Governor-General appoints as the Opposition Leader a MP who he believes is best able to command the support of a majority of those MPs who do not support the government.
GOVERNOR-GENERAL'S JOB
A careful reading of these two sections illustrates the point that, whereas the Governor-General need only appoint the Opposition Leader who is the person with the majority of the support of only those MPs sitting in Opposition, in appointing the Prime Minister, the Governor-General actually needs to appoint the one who commands the majority support of all 60 MPs PNP and JLP MPs alike.
Because of the convention that was developed in which the MPs for the governing party usually all throw their support behind the MP who is the party leader or party president, the Governor-General's job was always made easy.
Although there is no requirement that the MPs inform the Governor-General of the person among them for whom there is the majority support as prime minister, the Governor-General could only find this helpful.
After all, how better informed could the Governor-General be as to this fact than from the MPs themselves with whom the prime minister has to work, especially since the Governor-General himself is not sitting among the parliamentarians?
Although the Governor-General needs to appoint the person who he believes best able to command the majority support of all 60 MPs, it is clearly pointless considering in whom the Opposition MPs support lies, if all the members of the majority party support one of their own for the post.
Clearly, if out of a majority of 60, all the members of the majority party throw their support behind one candidate, then the lack of support from the Opposition would not change the equation. Thus, as a result of this convention, the Opposition's support was never deemed necessary.
The selection of the new prime minister to succeed Mr. Patterson may not be this simple, though as it has traditionally been.
The Governor-General may indeed have to do some work this time around. For if the scenario above actually plays out with Simpson Miller becoming PNP president, but being denied the majority support as prime minister, it would be clear that the Governor-General could not see her as the person who commands the majority support of all 60 MPs, even though she is the party president. For obvious political reasons, it is highly unlikely that the JLP MPs would, in such a scenario, throw their support behind . Simpson Miller.
INTERESTING TIMES
If any fewer than 30 of the PNP MPs support a PNP President Portia Simpson Miller as prime minister, once the 26 JLP MPs refuse to support Simpson Miller, it would be impossible for her to be seen by the Governor-General as the person most appropriate to be appointed prime minister.
It would be rather interesting to see how things would be resolved if, say, 30 of the PNP MPs decided to support Simpson Miller as prime minister, but the remaining four PNP MPs, along with the 26 JLP MPs, prefer Dr. Peter Phillips or someone else. Would it then be the job of the Governor-General, in such an instance, to select the person(s) he preferred as prime minister?
Obviously, or more so than not, should Simpson Miller become party president but is prevented from becoming prime minister, she would likely later want to replace all the PNP MPs who did not support her for the post of prime minister with candidates more likely to be in her corner, should the PNP win the majority seats in the next general parliamentary elections.
However, the PNP would probably have become such a disunited party that the JLP would be able to easily win the next parliamentary elections, notwithstanding the PNP having Mrs. Simpson Miller as party president. We are living in some interesting times, indeed.
