Don Robotham, ContributorMost of us following the contest for the presidency of the People's National Party (PNP) are focused on what the various candidates are up to. But, actually, there is another far more important side to the contest. The most important thing about this contest is what it is revealing about the deep political currents now flowing through the Jamaican population. What is striking about these political currents is how similar they are to the ones in Latin America.
Left-wing trend
Throughout Latin America a powerful current to the left has been flowing for the past two years. In Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and very likely also soon Mexico, candidates and parties of the left have been sweeping up popular support. These left-wing leaders are by no means the same: there is a world of difference between a figure such as President Chavez and President Bachelet the recently elected president of Chile. Nevertheless, the overall trend is unmistakable and on an unusually large scale. Throughout Latin America left-wing populism is clearly on the march.
It is on the march too in Jamaica. This is not immediately apparent to many because in Jamaica this trend has not taken on the clear-cut ideological form which it has in Latin America. Nor does it take the form of socialism, democratic or otherwise, as it did in the 1970s. Instead it takes a charismatic form focused on a particular personality. It takes the form of a deep desire for a political leader who is 'caring' and who shows 'compassion' as the campaign slogans of Minister Simpson Miller proclaim ironically echoing the political slogans of President Bush!
The strong popular mass support for Minister Simpson Miller is now quite obvious. Hers is an appeal which transcends party and is clearly stronger in the general population than it is among party delegates. Indeed, her support may be even stronger among JLP supporters than it is among PNP people so deep is this political current. Her mass appeal has been interpreted by some to be simply the result of her political skills and roots background. Actually, it goes much further. She is tapping into a very deep current of political and social discontent which is basically the same as that which is sweeping across Latin America.
None of this means that Minister Simpson Miller will win the current contest. This will be determined by the decisions of the delegates and not by the general population. But whether she wins or loses her presidential bid, this deep political current will remain. It exists independent of her. Indeed, if she loses, this political tendency may even intensify and generate an unprecedented political situation in Jamaica.
Causes and consequences
What is causing this welling up of popular support for a 'caring' and 'compassionate' leader? Without doubt it is the alienation which the majority feel from the free market economic policies pursued over the last 15 years, since Michael Manley deregulated the foreign exchange market in 1991. In order to rescue the economy from this precipitate action, the Government had little choice but to attempt to deflate the economy by a stringent regime of high interest rates and fiscal austerity.
These policies slew the inflation dragon let loose in 1991 (an 80 per cent inflation rate) and brought it down to single digits. But at an immense social, economic and political price. In the course of this brutal structural adjustment of the economy, which was inevitable after Manley had taken the initial step, hundreds of thousands fell below the poverty line and many more experienced a sharp reduction in their standard of living. An enormous increase in economic inequality developed.
As the adjustment continued, the majority emerged from below the poverty line but only marginally swivelling from just below to being just above the line an insignificant and insecure movement in real terms. As the adjustment
proceeded, unemployment fell to 12 per cent. It is not that this figure is false as some foolishly sneer. The more important point is that the incomes from this kind of employment are so low that in practical terms people do not know what they are working for.
The vast majority of Jamaicans therefore feel that the economic policies of the last 15 years have hurt them very badly and have favoured a tiny minority. They do not want these policies to continue. They want a leader who suggests to them that he/she
feels their pain and will, somehow, change the policies. The fact that these views may be wrong is neither here nor there. They are real and are deeply held and that is what counts.
The difference
The difference between the emerging situation in Jamaica and that in Latin America is that in those countries there exists left-wing political institutions to capture popular alienation from free market policies. These parties and movements channel these currents into the political process with the outcomes we see before us. Only in Venezuela did no such institutions exist. There the entire political elite traditional left and traditional right was discredited. The result was Chavez a man on horseback.
Actually the Jamaican situation is closer to the Venezuelan one than it is to those in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil or Mexico. In Jamaica, there are no left-wing political institutions for popular disaffection to flow into. There is also a strong tendency for the entire Jamaican political elite to become as discredited as their Venezuelan counterparts have become. This is the meaning of the attacks on PhDs and also the scepticism towards the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica. As a result Jamaican mass disaffection flows in two directions. One current (a minority but very powerful) flows into banditry and criminality. Another tendency, fully in keeping with our religious and political traditions, looks for a charismatic saviour to rescue us from the market. Both responses social banditry and political revivalism are classic responses of a population which is becoming increasingly frustrated and desperate.
This powerful political tendency is not likely to be attracted by technocratic solutions, no matter how truthful and well thought-out. In fact, the more the technocratic line is repeated, the more they are certain that this is not what they want. What does it matter to them if the country in which they live becomes a 'first world country' when their own life conditions are likely to remain stubbornly fourth world? First world for whom, is the question in their minds. As in Latin America, these feelings of disaffection are shared by the majority of Jamaicans. Like it or not, one way or another, political leadership will have to respond to them.
