Arnold Bertram
AS THE four contenders for the presidency of the People's National Party (PNP) enter the home stretch, there are unmistakable indicators as to where they will be at the finish line. It has been a long and strenuous campaign which has taxed to the utmost the organisational and financial resources of each team.
The stakes are extremely high and could well be the last opportunity for all contenders to realise what must be their ultimate political ambition. Peter Phillips, the youngest among them, can hardly entertain hopes of a second opportunity; and for Portia Simpson Miller, the eldest, it is now or never.
Some pundits had predicted, with good reason, that by now only the front-runners Phillips and Simpson Miller would still be in the race. It only goes to show that there are other reasons for running than winning.
MORE BARK THAN BITE
Such is Omar Davies' media presence that one could easily be confused into thinking that he is one of the main contenders. The fact is that any real assessment must begin with the reality that his 'Campaign for Prosperity' has hardly prospered in his own constituency of South St. Andrew. Of all the candidates, he enters the race with by far
the lowest level of constituency delegate support.
His 69 delegates from South St. Andrew contrast sharply with the over 200 constituency delegates that each of the other three contenders begin with. His dilemma is compounded by the fact that he cannot rely on the support of all 69, and there is not one other constituency in which he can gain a majority of the delegate votes.
Still, throughout the campaign, he has certainly contributed to creating a more informed electorate by providing the delegates with useful information and by clarifying critical economic issues. Unfortunately, he is not likely to benefit in terms of votes, since the race is clearly between the two front-runners, Phillips and Simpson Miller.
Davies is further hampered by the fact that his campaign team is primarily dominated by persons who at best have only tenuous links with the party. His plans to mobilise the overwhelming support of the private sector and the intelligentsia have not materialised, as in both groups he trails behind Phillips. What cannot be denied is that he has brought persons, who have traditionally remained on the sidelines, into political activism, which can only mean well for the future of the Jamaican
political process.
CUTTING ONE'S SUIT
TO FIT ONE'S CLOTH
It is to Karl Blythe's credit and good political sense, that from the outset he recognised the
difficulty of mounting a presidential campaign against a background of not regaining a place in the Cabinet. Despite this disadvantage, he has conducted a campaign consistent with his circumstances, concentrating on personal contact with the delegates in their communities.
However, in the modern world, it is virtually impossible to compete for political power without using the organs of mass communication, both for carrying the message as well as building an image. Still, Blythe maintains serious pockets of support among the rank and file of the party, who remember him as a minister who made an extraordinary effort to bring them the material benefits most critical to their existence.
Despite his record of service, there is the view that he entered this contest before he had attained the political stature which goes with leadership at the highest level of the party. The race for third place is clearly between himself and Davies.
THE CHALLENGE FROM
TEAM PORTIA
Team Portia has always been conscious of its candidate's popular standing outside the party. It is this extra party strength, particularly among the unemployed, on which it bases its capacity to challenge the centre of the party. Indeed, the main ammunition in Simpson Miller's political arsenal has been the oft-repeated assertion that of the four candidates, she alone is able to beat Bruce Golding and the Jamaica Labour Party in a general
election.
Those who supported Simpson Miller on this basis can now rethink their options based on the polls conducted by Bill Johnson and published in The Sunday Gleaner of January 29, showing Phillips and Simpson Miller statistically tied among registered voters, with both capable of beating Golding.
Johnson, who comes to the table with a fine international reputation, has been retained over the last 10 years by the PNP based on his accuracy as a pollster. By establishing that Phillips' popular standing is the same as Simpson Miller's among voters, Johnson has added a new dimension to the presidential race. Delegates are already shifting their allegiance to Phillips after recognising that he, more so than any other contender, combines both capacity and popularity.
HOLDING THE CENTRE OF THE PARTY
Phillips' candidacy has always been solidly based on the centre of the party, and on the support of comrades who constitute the life blood of the PNP. They were there in the decade of the 80s when the party was out of power, and have been critical to the successes of the party since 1989. It is not possible to defeat them without hijacking the party, and this is the reality which Simpson Miller has had to face. No candidate is likely to succeed to the leadership of the PNP without earning the confidence of party members based on a sustained record of service and achievement.
What also makes the critical difference between Phillips and other contenders in the home stretch is the depth and experience of his campaign team. The combination of Maxine Henry-Wilson, Paul Robertson, Horace Dally, Fenton Ferguson, Harry Douglas, Rosemarie Shaw and Wykeham McNeill boasts the finest organisational expertise available and brings over 500 delegate votes to the table. Team Portia's front line of Paul Burke, Colin Campbell, Phillip Paulwell, Tony Hylton, Richard Azan, Claude Clarke and Roger Clarke cannot measure up organisationally and collectively contributes less than 150 delegate votes to their candidate.
While all the candidates have survived to the home stretch, there are clearly not in the same shape. Some have run out of steam, others are finding it extremely difficult to maintain their rhythm. Experience shows that hard-fought presidential campaigns do not necessarily lead to close margins of victory. By the time of the elections, delegates have already made up their minds to give the winner the clear mandate they need to lead the party. All indicators suggest that the 'Solid as a Rock' team is the one to beat.
* Arnold Bertram, a historian and former parliamentarian, is at present chairman of Research and Project Development Ltd. Comments may be sent to redev@cwjamaica.com.
