John Rapley
DON'T BET ON IT. Or at least, to use American jargon, don't bet the farm. America's chattering classes are abuzz with speculation that Hillary Clinton will run for the presidency in 2008. Already, they are talking of the country's two rival dynasties. In reference to the White House's occupants since the 1980s, President Bush recently remarked that it might be Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.
The 2008 Democratic nomination appears to be Senator Clinton's for the taking. With her large and enthusiastic support base in the party, her nationwide name-recognition, her husband's campaigning ability, and her fund-raising prowess, she would appear to be unstoppable if she decided to run for the nomination.
She has reasons to hesitate. First is the fact that her career in the Senate has got off to a good start. Should she decide to stick with it, and should the Democrats retake control of the Senate - something that could happen this year, but will more likely wait until the 2008 election - she faces a bright and powerful future.
Beyond that, polling data continue to suggest that Senator Clinton would face serious obstacles once she ran for president. As pundits always point out, New York is not America. What sells there might not sell in the south or west. And given the U.S.'s arcane electoral system, whereby one must win states, Mrs. Clinton likely faces an uphill battle.
FOUR LIABILITIES
She has four liabilities. First, opinion about her polarises. Many like her, but surveys have consistently indicated that more Americans dislike her. Parsing the polls reveals an even deeper problem: among those who like her, only a minority like her strongly (admittedly, they do make up for their numbers in fervour). But among those who dislike her, the intensity runs high. For right-wing Americans, Hillary-hating is a pastime, and she would do much to unite a presently bickering Republican Party.
Second, and perhaps critical, is that it is not only the right which dislikes her. Many on the left wing of the Democratic Party dislike her and the centre-right approach she shares with her husband. The chronic problem of the Clintons, that they unite the right but divide the left, will almost certainly hinder her presidential run.
Third, her name-recognition can actually be a liability. Few Americans have not already formed a clear opinion of the Senator. That leaves only a handful of undecided voters to win over, the way a less well-known candidate could do.
Fourth, there is her husband. His ability to turn out crowds is legendary. Less well-known but now well-documented in the research, is that his ability to convert spectators into voters is actually dubious. In the past, Bill Clinton has been a deeply divisive figure. He, like his wife, mobilises right-wing animosity while demoralizing the Democratic Party's left-wing. A little known fact is that every candidate for whom Bill Clinton has campaigned since leaving office has gone on to defeat. In some cases, their support actually dropped once Mr. Clinton entered the race on their behalf.
FAN BASE REMAINS LARGELY INURED
Nevertheless, the Clintons' loyal fan base remains largely inured to this. They are convinced that they can put the couple back into the White House. Of course, her prospects are governed somewhat by whom the Republicans, themselves struggling, put up as their candidate. But a hint of Democratic troubles can be found in a recent poll which suggested that if Senator John McCain ran against Senator Clinton, he would trounce her.
Still, it's a much safer bet she will decide to run. But if she does so, she runs the risk of delivering the presidency back to the Republicans until at least 2013.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
