Arnold Bertram, ContributorTHREE OF the four contenders in the PNP's presidential race represent constituencies in the parishes of Kingston and St Andrew, which comprise the party's Region 3.
With its 15 constituencies, 40 Local Government divisions and 1,067 delegate votes, there is no mistaking the strategic importance of this region in determining the outcome of the contest.
While conceding its political importance, it is clear that a process of degeneration is unfolding in the capital city.
The social slide is partly reflected in the withdrawal of the middle and upper classes from politics. The trend towards a monopoly of such an important aspect of national life by the urban poor is a clear signal that all is not well with the body politic in Region 3.
A TIME TO HALT THE SLIDE
A careful analysis of the PNP's unprecedented run of four consecutive electoral victories in general elections shows that this has been achieved despite a declining base for the party in the Corporate Area.
The extent of this decline became obvious in the 2002 General Election and was confirmed by the results of the Local Government elections of 2003, which saw the JLP gain control of the Kingston and St. Andrew Corporation (KSAC) for the first time since 1981.
While other factors contribute, the political fall out has its roots in the state of the regional economy. The north coast has a range of investments particularly in tourism, which give cause for optimism.
The large investment in bauxite expansion has extremely positive implications for the southern parishes. For sometime now, there have been no comparative investments in the capital city.
For the last 25 years, the growing army of unemployed youth in the nation's capital has increasingly been recruited by the criminal elite to earn a livelihood in the illegal activities associated with the drug trade and extortion. While operation Kingfish has been eminently successful in bringing those formerly regarded as 'untouchable' before the courts, it requires more than effective policing to halt the slide.
Given the extremely challenging economic realities which confront the urban poor, the present wave of cultural degeneration is entirely predictable, and is affecting all social institutions including the party.
The impact on the party is seen in the large number of new delegates who have very little experience of the traditions of the party, and even less of its philosophical outlook and programmatic platform. The political education of the 70s is now completely behind us, and an appropriate understanding of globalisation is yet to be developed and communicated within the party.
THE REGIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL (REC) ELECTIONS
It was against this background that in September of last year, Region 3 was one of the six regions in which the PNP held elections to elect regional chairmen, secretaries, and constituency representatives - all of whom automatically have membership on the party's National Executive Council (NEC). Of the 3,519 delegates who were eligible to vote in those elections islandwide, 1,305 or 37 per cent were from Region 3.
Portia Simpson Miller dominated these elections. It was to her that Omar Davies turned to ensure his re-election as chairman of the region. Ten of the 15 constituency representatives elected to the NEC were her supporters.
For all intent and purposes, Kingston and St. Andrew had become Simpson Miller's territory, and as far as her supporters were concerned her installation as the next imperial occupant of Jamaica House was virtually assured.
The results of the REC elections evidently stunned the Peter Phillips 'Solid as a Rock' Team and their response was immediate. The first indications of their work on the ground were felt in the elections held in the constituencies of Central Kingston and East Rural St. Andrew. In Central Kingston Simpson Miller's protégé Victor Cummings lost, and in East Rural St. Andrew she had little cause for celebration.
Since then, the intense organisational efforts of the 'Solid as a Rock' team have virtually transformed the political landscape of the Corporate Area.
This transformation is readily observed in the analysis of the numbers.
The present voters list for Region 3 shows 1,067 group delegates, 91 NEC members and six councillors eligible to vote in the presidtential plections. What is most significan is that of these 1,164 potential voters, Phillips and Simpson Miller account for 508 between them. In Simpson Miller's constituency of South West St. Andrew, there are 268 registered group delegates, and in East Central St. Andrew which is represented by Phillips, there are 240. These votes can be regarded as counted already for both candidates.
The next three constituencies in order of voting power are: Western St. Andrew (91), South St. Andrew (76) and East Rural St. Andrew (73). The canvass shows a dead heat in Western St. Andrew, Phillips ahead in East Rural St. Andrew, and both Phillips and Simpson Miller trailing Omar Davies in his own constituency of South St. Andrew.
The other 10 constituencies in Kingston and St. Andrew account for only 416 votes. Included in these 10 constituencies is Eastern Kingston where Team Portia's campaign strategist Phillip Paulwell and field organiser Paul Burke have only managed to register 45 delegate votes. Even more ominous for Team Portia is the fact that their candidate is barely ahead of Phillips in this constituency.
In the other nine constituencies very little separates the two leading candidates share of the remaining 371 delegate votes.
THE FACTORS BEHIND THE CHANGE IN CORPORATE AREA
Perhaps the most important factor contributing to the new political situation in Region 3 is the organisational overhaul of Phillips' East Central St. Andrew constituency. The investment of time, the sincerity of effort along with solid achievements have all begun to yield important political dividends at a critical time. Of equal importance is Phillips' vision of urban transformation based on the expansion of training and economic opportunity which he consistently articulates.
Going beyond the rhetorical empathy with poverty, Phillips' message of hope and change for the urban dispossessed resonates with party delegates who see no other way for rebuilding the party's political fortunes in this critical region. For them the impending contest is not only to elect a new president, but to establish a platform for the social and economic transformation of the Corporate Area.
The third contributing factor is the organisational superiority of the 'Solid as a Rock' team.
The results of the PNP's regional elections held in September 2005 established Phillips as dominant in Region 2 (St. Mary, Portland and St. Thomas); clearly leading in Region 6 (St. James, Hanover and Westmoreland); and marginally ahead in Regions 5 (St. Elizabeth and Manchester), 4 (St. Catherine and Clarendon) and 1 (St. Ann and Trelawny). He clearly trailed behind Simpson Miller in Region 3.
Those who predict victory for Simpson Miller, do so on the basis of her maintaining her superiority in the Corporate Area, which was very much in evidence in September last. Now, in the final stages of the campaign, they are discovering that the political ground has shifted considerably and the chances of Simpson Miller taking Region 3 are becoming increasingly doubtful.
Arnold Bertram historian and former parliamentarian, is current chairman of Research and Product Development Ltd. Email redev@cwjamaica.com.
