Cedric Wilson, Guest Columnist
AT THE beginning of the 1990s, P. J. Patterson was forced to resign his Cabinet position in face of the Shell waiver controversy that embarrassed the Government. Many political pundits wrote him off and social commentators were quick to suggest that the curtain had fallen on his career in public life.
Undoubtedly, that was the lowest and darkest point of his political life. Yet, with the nonchalance of a man who knew more than what he was prepared to reveal, he confidently declared: "I shall return." Indeed, these were no idle words nor an empty boast. In March 1992, he ascended to the pinnacle of power and was sworn in as Prime Minister of Jamaica. And so after 14 years, the question is: How will history judge him?
Patterson became Prime Minister against the background of a shifting socio-political milieu, a highly unstable economic climate and a developing world grappling with the unsettling phenomenon of globalisation. The traditional influence that parties had over political garrisons was weakening and the impact of the drug trade with international ties began to express itself in rising crime.
The liberalisation of the foreign exchange market had led to the precipitous depreciation of the value of the Jamaican dollar and inflation was at stratospheric levels. Patterson, therefore, took the highest office in the land with new challenges added to the old issues of high unemployment and negative economic growth.
ENORMOUS SYMBOLISM
Enormous symbolism was associated with his presence in the office. Patterson, by virtue of his hue and humble beginnings, was more like the average Jamaican than any of his predecessors. His ascension to the office was the noblest vindication to an entire generation of Jamaicans who believed that education and hard work pays. Much was therefore expected of him, maybe too much.
Patterson took to the office an astute mind, a profound understanding of the Jamaican people and an unwavering commitment to the process of Caribbean integration. Perhaps, nothing exemplifies this understanding better than his depiction of the Jamaican political landscape as one in which 'warring tribes' vie for 'scarce benefits'.
And in a sense, he tackled the problem of political tribalism in his own way. In this respect, it was no so much what he did; it was more what he refused to do - re-opening old sores, stirring up antagonisms, attacking the opponent with history. Certainly, there is an atmosphere more conducive to political cooperation across political lines because of his style.
PNP INVINCIBILITY
Yet, politically, his most outstanding achievement is the invincibility of the People's National Party (PNP) at the polls. For a long time, the received wisdom in Jamaica was that no party could hold power for more than two consecutive political terms. Patterson shattered that notion in March 1993 when he led his party to victory and showed that it was no fluke when he won again in December 1997. The PNP's victory, it may be argued, was the result of the deep internal conflicts within the Opposition JLP, nevertheless a lot is attributable to Patterson's leadership.
Without ability, opportunity is useless and without opportunity, ability is pointless. The JLP created the opportunity and Patterson employed his extraordinary political skills to triumph. It may be argued that Patterson's approach, owing to the absence of outright ruthlessness, is the very antithesis of Machiavellian politics. However, Machiavelli, the high priest of Medieval political theory, would have applauded Patterson. In his book, The Prince, Machiavelli praises a particular leader for his mastery in the art of war on account of the fact that "having in peacetime never thought of anything else except military strategy." There is a sense that the brilliance of Patterson's strategy lies in what takes place between elections rather than what occurs during the elections themselves.
What is, however, clear, is that despite his understanding and clear articulation of the Jamaican realties, he was unable to communicate a vision that was bold enough to bring about a powerful national unity to force the economy ahead. Arguably, it may have been his modest style he's without the flamboyance and the bravado of Fidel Castro; he lacks the showmanship of a Ronald Reagan. But paradoxically, it is the same attributes associated with that modesty that has led to the lessening of tribal politics.
And what of the economy? The economy under his watch has achieved a tentative stability. For six consecutive years (1997-2002), the country experienced single-digit inflation. In each of the last five years, the economy has grown, albeit sluggishly. In both these two instances, there is no parallel since 1970.
There have also been developments in the housing sector and significant improvements to the public transportation system. However, there is widespread dissatisfaction among Jamaicans because it is felt that this is too late. In addition, there is a serious concern about the level of Jamaica's debt in relation to national output and the increase in the level of crime.
PROMISE OF DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS
Yet, there is the promise of direct foreign investments and the stability achieved represents a platform on which a stronger economy may be erected. Prime Minister P. J. Patterson has done the right thing: Quit while he is on top. This is an unusual thing to do in the arena of political power. But he has chosen to give up office at a precarious point: A juncture where much is left undone and therefore, in a sense the extent to which posterity remembers him depends on the achievements of his successor.
If his successor amplifies economic growth with the context of increasing human development, posterity will recognise Patterson as the man who laid the foundation. History is a strange subject and assessments are difficult the closer you are to the event. Of course, here the circumstances are completely different from when Patterson resigned from the Cabinet some 16 years ago. However, from an historical perspective, it is difficult not to ask if once again he will say: "I shall return."
Cedric Wilson is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. Send your comments to: conoswil@hotmail.com.
