Dan Rather
THE REACTION in the Muslim world to the now-infamous Danish political cartoons has revealed something to Americans that the international debate over the invasion of Iraq may have obscured: Islamists regard Europe with at least as much antipathy as they do the United States. This goes beyond the specific terrorist attacks against England and Spain, both charter members of the U.S.-led 'coalition of the willing' (for the record, Denmark is also a member of the Iraq War coalition) this is about a deep and pervasive cultural mistrust born of present-day realities and centuries of history.
Americans might pause for a moment and absorb what lessons, if any, this realisation might contain for the future of international relations.
Decades of Cold War between the U.S. and the former U.S.S.R. conditioned us to think of Europe as the fulcrum upon which the world order turned. And the prominent opposition by France and Germany to military action against Saddam Hussein's Iraq gave this view new life in the post-Cold War era. But as we look at the current 'generational' struggle against radical, violent Islam, we might ask ourselves if we understand the degree to which the global fulcrum has shifted to Asia.
NUCLEAR STAND-OFF
There may be no better example of this shift than the brewing nuclear stand-off with Iran. Negotiations between Iran and England, Germany and France give every appearance of having ground to a halt. Meantime, a Russian proposal to enrich small amounts of uranium on Russian soil for Iran - a plan backed by China and the U.S. - still seems to have life.
Iran continues to do an elaborate two-step with the rest of the world on the nuclear issue, alternating between brash, bellicose talk and largely fruitless sessions at the bargaining table. Whether Iran's pursuit of the Russian proposal is anything more than a move to buy Iran time while it enriches its own uranium is something that only its ruling mullahs know for sure.
But even in the event that the talks between Russia and Iran come to nothing, Iran's decision to keep these negotiations alive while letting the European talks falter is a potentially telling one: Iran may have written off Europe, with its EU resolutions against a nuclear-armed Iran and its two permanent votes on the U.N. Security Council. Iran knows it needs only one permanent-member veto to defeat any Security Council vote, and both Russia and long-time Iran ally China possess such a veto.
Russia and China have the potential to complicate and divide the world's response to a nuclear Iran and, conversely, they might be the only nations with the clout - in diplomacy and combined, emergent economic status - to stop a nuclear-armed Iran. There is plenty in this realisation to make us nervous, in terms of U.S. history with both of these nations and in the fact of the tremendous amount of American debt held by China. But discomfort with the way the global centre of gravity is changing should not keep us from acknowledging the change.
FULL-SERVICE SUPERPOWERS
In Russia and China, the world has two potential full-service superpowers - two huge, nuclear-armed nations with rapidly growing economies. Both have a history of alliance with many of the regimes - in the Middle East and elsewhere - of greatest concern to the United States. And while the West waits to see whether Russia and China will become forces for stability or chaos in the new international order, the American leadership and the American led may need to better understand the historic shift under way, and how it could influence events from Tehran to the West Bank and beyond.
Dan Rather is a U.S. television broadcaster.
