Simpson Miller (left) and Golding (right)
THE NATION'S desire to see what Portia Simpson Miller can do as the country's first female Prime Minister has provided an electoral boost for the governing People's National Party (PNP), according to a recent Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll.
The survey, conducted earlier this month, indicated that 52 per cent of registered voters would support the PNP in a general election compared to the 26 per cent who would probably or definitely vote for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). Twelve per cent said they would not vote, eight per cent were undecided and two per cent refused to comment. Registered voters comprised 78 per cent of the 1,008 persons surveyed and, therefore, only 613 would have voted.
"Looking at those who say they would have voted and comparing them with those in our sample who say they voted in 2002, produces some very interesting results," Johnson said in his analysis. "Overall, the PNP vote increased from 53 per cent of our sample in 2002 to 66 per cent as of March 4 and 5, an increase of 13 per cent."
INCREASE IN PNP SUPPORT
He added that the JLP vote, or the percentage of JLP
supporters among those persons who said they would vote, showed a corresponding 13 per cent decrease, bringing it down to 34 per cent for 2006. Among men, the increase in PNP
support was only five per cent, bringing it to 62 per cent, while support from women increased 21 per cent to round off at 70 per cent. Among those aged 18-24, 67 per cent supported the PNP, a 21 per cent increase for 2006 over how those interviewed said they voted in 2002.
PORTIA POPULAR ACROSS THE BOARD
"The bottom line is that at this time Portia's popularity translates across the board in significant increases in support for the PNP among both sexes and among all age groups, but is particularly significant among women and the young," Johnson reasoned.
The majority of those who said they would opt for the PNP either said it was "woman time" (25 per cent) now or that the country should "give Portia a chance" (20 per cent). On the other hand, of those who supported the Opposition party, most said it was because they were JLP supporters (29 per cent) while 19 per cent said it was time for a change.
The poll, with a plus or minus three per cent margin of error, was conducted by Johnson and his team on March 4 and 5, just a week after Mrs. Simpson Miller was elected the first woman to lead a major political party in Jamaica. She will not, however, take the reins of Government until the end of this month when current Prime Minister P.J. Patterson retires. It will then be up to the new Prime Minister to decide on when to call the next general election, which is constitutionally due by October 2007.
But while political pundits have speculated that the election will be called sometime this year, to capitalise on Mrs. Simpson Miller's current popularity, 46 per cent of those interviewed said the election should not be called until next year. Only 23 per cent believed it should be called before the end of June, while 12 per cent said it should be called between July and October.
