Director-General, Planning Institute of Jamaica, Dr. Wesley Hughes speaking at a function recently. -
NORMAN GRINDLEY/DEPUTY CHIEF PHOTOGRAPHER
THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wesley Hughes, says the Jamaican economy is expected to continue on its growth trend for the first quarter of this year.
"The short-term prospects are quite positive as economic expansion is expected to continue. Real GDP growth for the period is expected to be 3.1 per cent higher than the corresponding period last year," said Dr. Hughes as he delivered the keynote address at PanCaribbean Merchant Bank's recent Economic Breakfast Forum at the Terra Nova Hotel.
The PIOJ head said he expected the country's GDP to grow by just over three per cent this year.
"Our long-term projection for the economy for the calendar year 2006, real GDP is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent in comparison to the previous year." He noted, "There is real recovery taking place after the many, many shocks of 2005."
Specifically, those shocks refer to the rise in oil prices, the drought experienced by the island last year and the flooding as a result of the active hurricane season. The latter two factors impacted negatively on the agriculture sub-sector.
REAL GDP GROWTH
In fact, real GDP growth last year was 1.8 per cent even though there was a 4.1 per cent growth in the last quarter of the year.
Growth during the first quarter of this year is expected to be driven by the services sector, which the PIOJ projects will grow by about 2.3 per cent during this period. According to Dr. Hughes, last year "real GDP growth in the services sectors was better than the goods-producing sectors, by 0.2 per cent - 1.7 per cent compared to 1.5 per cent."
Dr. Hughes noted that while the goods-producing sector experienced negative growth during the first two quarters last year, "at no time during the calendar year 2005 did the Services sector experience real negative growth."
