Aubyn Hill
WHENEVER I think of how important it is for people from businesses and governments to take the long view, I am immediately reminded of how much against the grain of human nature it is to think and act for the long term. In fact, an unforgettable line from the movie Sleepless in Seattle is probably the best summation of how hooked we are as human beings to the short term. It is: "instant gratification takes too long". Every day, we have to fight the urgency or ease of the short term in order to grasp the long term. Children go to school for many years before they can qualify for the next important stage of their education. Nurses, doctors, teachers, lawyers and even politicians who want to make it to the top of the leadership pile all have to take the long view to achieve professional and ultimate success.
I was recently in Brazil and my business discussions reminded me of how important it is that countries and their leaders (political, business, religious and others in civil society) take the long view. Today, Brazil is the leading exporter of ethanol and is leading the drive to make this renewable source of energy an easily tradable commodity around the world. By taking the long view on energy independence, Brazil has arrived at this leading and enviable position (today ethanol is being discussed with the same excitement with which the software companies of Silicon Valley were being discussed in the early to mid 1990s). As happens most times with human beings, it was a crisis that forced the long view on Brazil. In 1975, in the middle of the first oil crisis, Brazil was broke and could not afford to import crude oil for its energy needs. Indeed, in the mid-80s I arranged a very large loan facility from the bank with which I worked in Kuwait to the major importer of petroleum products in Brazil for that entity to buy Kuwaiti petroleum products. It was the crisis in the mid-70s that forced Brazil to find a renewable source of energy, which it did in ethanol.
A three-decade-long alternative energy campaign has outfitted Brazilian filling stations with fuel pumps that offer pure ethanol, a blend of gasolene and 10 per cent ethanol called gasohol, or even natural gas. This year, Brazil will achieve energy independence - a goal the United States has been chasing without success since the energy crisis of the 1970s.
LONG-TERM POLICY FILLIP
The new excitement surrounding ethanol as a renewable fuel was also precipitated by a major crisis that happened on September 11, 2001. The Renewable Fuels bill that was talked about by President George W. Bush in his State of the Union address earlier this year encapsulates America's long view on weaning itself from foreign oil - primarily Middle Eastern oil - by turning to a renewable fuel that can be produced in the United States. The current annual demand for ethanol in the United States is about 7.5 billion gallons while about four billion is being produced in America today. It is expected that America will arrive at self sufficiency in ethanol only by about 2012, however, between now and then there will be strong demand in the U.S., Europe and Asia for ethanol. For the first time in a long time the United States has decided to adopt a renewable energy policy that will reduce significantly its need for imported oil. This provides the rest of the world with a great opportunity.
CRISIS AND THE LONG VIEW
Human beings are almost addicted to the short term and it usually takes a crisis for even the wise among us to think and plan for the long term. But for some people, and some leaders, even a crisis does not yank them out of their cozy embrace of 'shortermism'. The solution to our overarching crime problem requires a multifaceted, comprehensive and long-term approach. The multifaceted approach will have us deal with ordinary street crime with a persistence that will tell the petty criminals that if they break the law, they will be prosecuted every time. That means that we will have to take a long-term view to find sufficient policemen and policewomen to do the job on the street while paying them decent wages. This is how former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani did it in New York. The multifaceted approach also means that the big criminals must be addressed with the kind of unrelenting force - both through the justice system and legal physical force - with the consistency that lets them know that they can forego their criminal ways and join the civil society, or face the raw consequences that the law allows. The long-term approach would have us adopt a 'socialising boot camp' that seeks to help our youngsters through a difficult period in their lives until they become skilled and responsible adults (I am delighted with the strong pro and con responses to the socialising boot camp article that was published last week).
The crisis in our educational system and the need to create jobs in perpetuity are all issues that require us to address them with a long-term view if we are going to have any hope of success.
WHAT ABOUT THE SHORT TERM?
The famous economist, John Maynard Keynes, remarked that in the long term we are all dead. That truism tells us that while there are issues which are important and must be addressed in the long term, there are others that are urgent and important and which have to be addressed in the short term. Business and government leaders who are considered to be successful have found methods that allow them to keep their enterprises focused on long-term successes while making sure that their customers or constituents are relatively satisfied and not unduly disgruntled in the short term. So there will have to be short-term measures adopted by businesspeople to address the pressing needs of a consumer group, or constituents in the case of politicians. Making sure that consumers and constituents are happy in the short term is what many leaders tend to do and it brings them some popularity for a short while. Successful business and political leaders find a way to lead their companies and employees, or their cabinets and civil servants by helping them to understand the long term and commit to that long-term good - sometimes while enduring short-term pain. Outstanding leaders such as Golda Meir, Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan and Jack Welch found ways to focus on the long-term good while producing enough successes in the short term to make the necessary sacrifices bearable in order to achieve long-term successes.
Aubyn Hill is the CEO of Corporate Strategies Ltd., a restructuring and financial advisory firm. Respond to: writerhill@gmail.com.
