John Rapley
I HAD time to reflect on many things on my plane ride back from the U.S. During a week of meetings in Washington, D.C., I spent a lot of time talking about the world economy, Jamaica's prospects, and what the country might do to finally break out of its economic stagnation.
True, one can say, Jamaica is not stagnating. As our last prime minister used to remind us, money is circulating in the country. The problem, rather, is that the formal economy that which is taxed by the government has barely budged. The informal economy that which is all too often taxed by criminal gangs has arguably taken up the slack.
VICIOUS CYCLE
That creates a vicious cycle: a cash-strapped government cuts its spending, which breeds corruption, and drives more people into the hands of the gangs, further enriching those who would contest the authority of the state.
The Washington policy community whether it be the Americans, or the big multilateral agencies are clearly worried about the threat of Jamaican crime. And yet, there is also a mood of optimism. The world economy is growing. The terms of trade now favour developing countries for the first time in memory. Investment in the Third World seems poised to take off.
And in Jamaica, much has happened below the radar over the last decade. The murder rate has worsened, for sure. However, infrastructure has improved. Administrative reform appears also to have created a public sector that is more efficient and effective.
In sum, Jamaica could be standing on the verge of a period that could be as economically propitious as were the 1960s. Those kinds of opportunities do not come along very often in a country's lifetime.
JAMAICAN ECONOMY PROJECT
That sort of optimism has arisen from the research being done by the Jamaican Economy Project, which I was representing at the Washington meetings. But it is an optimism that has been tempered by caution. The researchers in the Project are mindful that the last time the train rolled into Jamaica' station, we failed to stay on board. Some countries which began the post-colonial period with economies like ours are today among the planet's richest.
Growth alone, which we are now expecting this year, will not deliver development. Finding the right balance of investment and job creation, for instance, is a goal which has repeatedly eluded Jamaica's planners. Trying to come up with a blueprint that can put Jamaica on a sustainable path of growth and development is the over-riding goal of the project.
Yet more than all the objective indicators, what gave me cause of optimism was the sheer breadth of talent and commitment I found in my travels. There was a time when Jamaicans who migrated were seen as somehow disloyal to their country. Indeed, the outside world was long regarded as the source of Jamaica's woes.
DETERMINATION TO CHANGE
Yet there are many Jamaicans, of all ages, working in high positions at the world's major international bodies. What unites them is a conviction that Jamaica can do better, and a determination to play their part in the change. They never thought they left their country. They felt they could do their bit from where they sat. More and more, Jamaica's diaspora are assisting in the country's re-emergence, something being greatly assisted by our man in Washington, Gordon Shirley.
Indeed, Jamaica may find it has more friends abroad than it once thought. Given the seemingly propitious conditions in the world economy, embracing it more warmly than we once did may lead us to a promising future.
The chance may be there, if we take it and use it well.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
