Ashford W. Meikle, Staff Reporter
Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, Dr Wesley Hughes, addressing the quarterly press briefing on the country's economic performance yester-day in New Kingston. - JUNIOR DOWIE/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
THE JAMAICAN economy recorded modest growth for the first quarter of this year, according to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimated at just over one per cent.
"The economy during the [January to March] quarter, in our estimation, would have grown relatively modestly at 1.4 per cent," said the PIOJ's director general, Dr. Wesley Hughes, yesterday at the state agency's quarterly review of the country's economic performance at its New Kingston offices.
According to Dr. Hughes, 'the goods-producing sector grew by 0.6 per cent [while] the services sector was up by approximately 1.7 per cent."
At the same time, the agency estimates that the real GDP growth for 2005 is 1.8 per cent with the services sector projected to have grown by 1.4 per cent along with a 1.9 per cent growth in the goods-producing sector.
Noted the director-general, "The main sources of growth during the year were agriculture, construction and installation, electricity and water, distribution and miscellaneous services."
Most of tourism is captured in the latter category.
RECOVERY TREND
Specifically, during the first quarter of this year, the goods-producing sector, agriculture recorded a 24.7 per cent increase, continuing the recovery trend started in the fourth quarter of 2005. (Last year the sector suffered declines for the first three quarters.)
In contrast, as noted by Dr. Hughes, "All sub-categories of the services sector recorded growth," fuelled by miscel-laneous services (6.6 per cent), electricity and water (3.2 per cent), real estate and business services (2.0 per cent), transport and communication (1.3 per cent) and finance and insurance services (1.2 per cent.). Growth was also recorded by distribution (0.5 per cent) and the government services (0.3 per cent) sub-sectors.
The positive trend in the services sector, according to Dr. Hughes, is "in keeping with the trend we have seen over the previous year. The services sector is generally performing in a positive manner overall."
In giving updates on areas of the macro economy during the period, PIOJ boss noted that:
Inflation for the quarter was 0.1 per cent;
There was a fiscal surplus of $8.4 billion;
A 2.5 per cent depreciation in the foreign exchange rate.
The PIOJ estimates that GDP for the second quarter of this year will grow by 1.9 per cent, with the services sector expected to grow by 1.9 per cent while the goods producing sector "is expected to remain flat with a marginal decline of 0.1 per cent."
DEFINITIVE STATISTICS
At the press briefing, the director general used the opportunity to stress that it was the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), and not the PIOJ, which is responsible for releasing definitive figures on the country's economic per-formance.
"We're always going to be somewhat off given the fact that we are making projected forecasts, while STATIN is giving actual measurements," he noted in an obvious reference to media reports on the variance in the figures from the two agencies.
The PIOJ had projected a 1.8 per cent GDP growth for the 2005 calendar year compared to the official figure of 1.4 per cent.
