JUST OVER two months into the Portia Simpson Miller administration,
the governing People's National Party (PNP) has lost the support of a solid majority of voters, although remaining ahead, according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll.
Forty four per cent of 1,008 persons, 18 years and older, interviewed by Johnson and his team of researchers on May 13 and 14, said they would vote for the PNP if the general election, constitutionally due in late 2007, was to be called. This represents a slippage of eight percentage points down from the party's standing in the previous poll conducted in March. The May poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) remains steady at 26 per cent with Opposition Leader Bruce Golding at the helm.
It appears that most of the PNP's loss in support has gone to 'undecided voters', whose ranks have substantially increased from eight to 13 per cent. In addition, those who previously said they would not vote have increased from 12 per cent to 14 per cent.
LOSING POPULARITY
Mrs. Simpson Miller became the nation's first woman Prime Minister on March 30 after winning a keenly-contested PNP presidential election over her closest rival Dr. Peter Phillips, on February 25. The previous Bill Johnson poll, conducted soon after she became Prime Minister-designate, but before her inauguration, indicated that 43 per cent of persons would 'definitely' vote PNP with her as leader. This declined to 35 per cent in the May survey. However, those who said they would 'probably' vote PNP in March has remained stable at nine per cent.
In the latest poll 22 per cent of those who said they would vote JLP were strongly of that opinion, almost mirroring the 23 per cent recorded previously.
DIMINISHING CAPITAL
The poll findings indicate that the political capital earned by the PNP, from having a woman as leader, has been greatly diminished. In March, the primary reason for persons supporting the party was because of Mrs. Simpson Miller's gender, with 25 per cent saying it was 'Woman Time'. However, in May, PNP supporters of that view sharply dropped to 14 per cent. There was, instead, a seven per cent increase to 26 per cent, in persons who said they would vote for the party because they were PNP supporters. Six per cent of those who would vote PNP said the party was doing a good job and those who said the new Prime Minister should be given a chance remained at 20 per cent.
At the same time, a high percentage of all those interviewed suggested they wanted more time to see what Mrs. Simpson Miller could do with 41 per cent, a decrease of five per cent, indicating they felt the next election should not be called until sometime next year. Nineteen per cent wanted early elections before the end of June or July.
Those who said they would vote JLP because they were supporters of the party jumped from 29 per cent to 38 per cent, while those who said "Golding is good" was five per cent.
