Daraine Luton, Staff ReporterWITH PUNDITS believing this hurricane season will be accompanied by a general election, analysts say the ruling People's National Party (PNP) may have gained more than the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)
arising out of the Eastern Westmoreland by-election last Wednesday.
Just over 45 per cent of the persons registered to vote in the constituency turned out, the majority of which cast ballots for the PNP's Luther Buchanan.
Buchanan, the nephew of PNP Member of Parliament (MP) Danny Buchanan, polled 6,400 votes to the JLP's Don Foote 3,300, and independent candidate Astor Black 44 votes.
But although the PNP retained a seat that has only elected a JLP MP twice, including 1983 when the PNP did not contest the elections, some experts believe that neither party should be comfortable with the results.
Buchanan polled 2,189 votes less than the 8,598 that former Prime Minister P.J Patterson secured in 2002 when he beat Foote. However, this time around, Foote picked up 509 more than in 2002.
Charlene Sharpe-Pryce, chairperson of the Department of History, Geography and Social Sciences at the Northern Caribbean University (NCU), commented that the results are nothing much to write home about. She said both parties now will have to go to the grounds very early to try and mobilise the voters as it is obvious that people have become disinterested in voting.
LOST MORE
"The PNP won the election, but they have lost more than they gained though. The fact that 2,000 less people came out to vote says that they have not been able to mobilise their voters," reasoned Sharpe-Pryce. It is a by-election but when one considers the hype surrounding party leadership, they would have expected much more votes."
It is believed that the newly-installed Prime Minister, Portia Simpson Miller, will swing a lot of votes to the PNP, quite unlike Opposition Leader Bruce Golding who, like Simpson Miller, is yet to seek prime ministership in a general election.
In what she calls the Shahine Robinson effect, Sharpe-Pryce said that if Foote had put up a better showing it would have suggested that things would be very difficult for the PNP in the general election.
In March of 2001, then Prime Minister Patterson tested the political waters with a by-election in what was considered the safe PNP seat of North East St. Ann. But Robinson eked out a narrow 509-vote win, which as history would have it, was the start of a swing among voters nationwide away from the ruling People's National Party. The party lost 11 of its 49 seats when the general election was called in October 2002.
But according to Danny Roberts, vice-president of the PNP affiliate, the National Workers Union (NWU), the Eastern Westmoreland results speak to the JLP's inability to present themselves as a government in waiting.
"After 18 years in power, the results show that the PNP still have a very solid support base, and it is a telling sign to an opposition that if you can't make a serious impression after 18 years then you will be in perpetual opposition," Roberts remarked.
And although conceding that the seat left vacant by the retirement of former prime minister Patterson is safe PNP territory, Roberts said that if the JLP had fared better, they would have added impetus to seek the mandate to govern.
DESPERATE
"The JLP, who are a bit desperate to send the message that they are a credible alternative, would have failed miserably," said Roberts. "They wanted another North East St. Ann, but from the results, it is safe to say that the only way the PNP lose the next general election would be if they beat themselves."
Shahine Robinson of the JLP polled 7,743 votes; Carrol Jackson of the PNP, 7,234; Barbara Clarke of the National Democratic Movement, 740; and Astor Black, Independent, 41 in the 2001 North East St. Ann by-election.
But it is not purely the results of the Eastern Westmoreland by-election that economist Errol Gregory is concerned with. He believes that even though the PNP was expected to retain the seat, the number of votes they received is not something that will encourage them to call a general election soon.
"The results were predictable but had victory been more resounding we would be having an early election, and it would be better for the economy," Gregory argued.
He said the results do not give the impression of a resounding victory, even when the 'Portia factor' was in play and this means that the general election is not as imminent as we thought. "Had the PNP got a better result they would have 'run wid it', " stated Gregory.
"If the nation is in an uncertain mode as far as the election is concerned, it adds an element of uncertainty and this is not good for the economy," Gregory noted.
The PNP was returned to power for a fourth consecutive term in October 2002 and the next general election is constitutionally due late 2007.
