Abe Dabdoub, Contributor

RECENT HEADLINES in the The Gleaner on Thursday June 8, 2006 and The Sunday Gleaner of June 11, 2006 both publicising sections of the May Bill Johnson polls are in my view not a fair and accurate reflection of the analysis of these poll results.

These headlines are no doubt one of the contributing factors which lead to the general secretary of the Jamaica Labour Party erroneously concluding that the polls are favourable to the JLP.

What is amusing is that the general secretary of the JLP is apparently now embracing the results of a Bill Johnson poll which hitherto the Jamaica Labour Party in general and the general secretary in particular consistently dismissed as PNP polls and therefore irrelevant. In The Gleaner of June 12, 2006, the leader of the JLP is reported to be shrugging off opinion poll findings showing a decline in support for the People's National Party. He states that in future the JLP will offer "no comment" in response to poll findings. Bully for you, Bruce. Who really speaks for the party, Mr. Golding or Mr. Samuda? Surely, Mr. Golding must be aware that ignoring poll findings will not cause them to disappear or to become inaccurate.

If The Gleaner is to serve the public fairly and accurately without any spin it is not only important that a proper analysis of the poll results are set out for their readers, but that the headlines also reflect the results and analysis accurately. To do otherwise is to raise a false sense of hope in those who may conclude that the polls favour them and thereby encourage their political complacency.

I set out in here an analysis of the poll results published on June 8, 2006.

According to The Gleaner the Prime Minister's popularity rating 'plunged' by 14 percentage points from 78 per cent to 64 per cent. A proper analysis of the poll results, however, clearly reveals that for her to have fallen from 78 to 64 per cent her popularity rating would have declined by 18 per cent and not 14 per cent. Similarly the Leader of the Opposition's popularity rating would have suffered an 11 per cent decline for him to have fallen from 35 per cent to 31 per cent and not four percentage points as The Gleaner has stated.

The rating of the political parties in so far as what the public thinks of them when analysed indicates that the PNP still commands a significantly high popularity as their percentage has not fallen whilst that of the JLP has. When extrapolated these results reveal that the PNP commands a whopping 62.7 per cent favourability with the public to the JLP's 37.3 per cent.

Turning to The Sunday Gleaner's publication I must observe that the headline is misleading as it speaks to the Prime Minister 'losing ground' thereby conveying the impression that she is likely to lose any election called in the immediate future. An analysis of the poll results as published indicates that nothing could be further from the truth.

The PNP still commands 44 per cent to the JLP's stagnant 26 per cent. What this means is that in an election the PNP would obtain 62.8 per cent of the popular vote to the JLP's 37.2 per cent. When translated into a seat count based on the 2002 General Election results the only two seats the JLP would win is West Kingston and Central St. Catherine.

It must be observed that no political party has ever won an election with 62 per cent of the vote and this is unlikely to happen even with Prime MinisterSimpson Miller as president of the PNP. To the best of my recollection the highest percentage ever achieved by a political party was 59 per cent which resulted in a seat count of 52 seats to the winning party.

I must also observe that it is virtually impossible for any leader to maintain a 78 per cent popular support, especially at a time when an election is pending where the party forming Government is seeking a fifth term. If this were so it would mean a complete wipe out of the Opposition which is highly unlikely.

Finally these poll results speak eloquently to one other observation which is not without significance. The PNP's popularity is holding and although the Prime Minister's is declining her popularity is still significantly above that of the PNP.

Her being leader is, therefore, advantageous to the PNP. On the other hand the Leader of the Opposition's popularity rating is well below that of his party. His popularity rating is of no advantage to the JLP. According to the publication in The Sunday Gleaner only five per cent said "Golding is good". It is the JLP's popularity then which is carrying the new leader of the JLP.

Abe Dabdoub is a former member of the Jamaica Labour Party and now sits in Parliament as an independent member.