- RICARDO MAKYN/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
The work of councillors was under scrutiniy in the recent Mount Industry by-elections. A damaged road in the community, taken on March 6.Shalman Scott, Contributor
THE BY-ELECTIONS of both the Bethel Town and Mount Industry divisions of Eastern Westmoreland and North Eastern St. Catherine have come and gone with the People's National Party (PNP) securing victories in both seats, thus ending speculation by the candidates and their political parties regarding the people's expressed will.
While the Bethel Town divisional result came as no surprise, the Mount Industry PNP victory is worth looking at more closely, not only for the fact that it was less than eighteen months ago that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won a comfortable victory in this division; but also there is evidence of an unusual political development in which a by-election has turned out more voters than a preceding general parish council election.
In the 2003 general parish council elections, the total votes cast was 2,257. Of this amount, the JLP secured 1,233 to the PNP's 1024.
Less than a year and a half later, a total of 2644 votes - based on the preliminary figures - was cast. The JLP received 1,294 - an increase of 61 votes over last year's figures, while the PNP received 1,350, an increase of 326 votes over last years outcome.
NOMINAL CHANGES
Of the 387 additional persons who had not voted in 2003 and who have done so this time, the PNP received 326, or 84 per cent, while the JLP received 16 per cent, or 61 votes.
Only nominal changes took place on the voters list over this period. The initial response of JLP General Secretary Karl Samuda, along with a sizeable number of persons within the JLP, was to posit that the party's defeat in both by-elections was due to continuing infighting within the JLP.
While such a theory is not without merit, the inherent danger it poses is that it ignores and gives no credit to the organisational machinery of the PNP this time around, and runs the risk of the JLP not having a credible explanation for future defeats once the infighting has ceased.
The numbers do not support the theory of a JLP loss, particularly in Mount Industry division, due to a lack of unity within the JLP.
In 1998, that division was won by the PNP 1,041 to the JLP's 845. In the general election of 2002 the division swung to the JLP with 1,432 to the PNP's 1,248 votes. The trend continued in favour of the JLP in 2003 local elections with the JLP securing a decent majority, and now in 2004 the division has swung back to the PNP.
Although the JLP did not win, for that party to bring out - in a by-election - votes which exceeded the amount received in the previous major election, is nothing short of commendable.
With almost all communities within the Mount Industry division involved in farming, the impact of Hurricane Ivan produced dislocations of all sorts. School life, community life and family life were all affected. Consequently, domestic concerns of restoring a normal life were of high priority and would have worked favourably for the incumbent government.
STRATEGIC UTTERANCES
The JLP general secretary ought to observe, despite his initial strategic utterances, that it is still possible for the PNP - which the JLP claimed has "mash up Jamaica" - to defeat the JLP in areas recently won by the JLP. He should also note that despite an overwhelming presence of Bruce Golding hat and T-shirt-wearing supporters in Mount Industry, this was unable to prevent a JLP defeat in St Catherine.
It should additionally be noted that the stewardship of sitting JLP councillors,mayors and Members of Parliament is usually scrutinised whenever an election or by-election is called.
Consequently, the performance of the present batch of JLP representatives, both at the local and national levels, will be critically evaluated by the people in a manner similar to that which the JLP hopes the present government will be brought to book.
In the upcoming election, the Opposition should not just go on an all-out political offensive, but be equally busy defending a significant number of the 26 seats currently held.
Those who are claiming through 'private polls and chest-thumping pundits' that the Jamaican electorate is sick and tired of the PNP may wish to think again. Or, at least, they should ask the question - which section of the electorate is sick and tired? Most of those who vote, or most of those who do not?
OPPORTUNITY
Now is an opportunity for the JLP to make use of the shock treatment facilitated by the two by-elections and emerge from all of this as a fighting force (no pun intended) ready to take over Government in 2007.
The overused 'JLP infighting' theory must be placed in its proper perspective because the party's disunity is a consequence of something much deeper - the arrogance of leadership within the JLP which has spawned a culture from within, steeped in the belief that just a few persons have the only answers!
And, that there needs to be a humble acceptance that what the JLP does or has not done is only a part of the equation in political outcomes -; the PNP's action or lack thereof is the other significant part. This fact, the JLP will tell you, is nothing new, yet, of the 13 contested elections since 1974 in over 30 years, that party has won three and has lost 10.
Meanwhile, the PNP must not feel all is well because it is simply not so, either. Of the total votes cast the, JLP received 49 per cent to the PNP's 51 per cent. The PNP's margin of victoryon the basis of votes cast is two per cent but, on the basis of eligible voters, it is only one per cent.
It took a five per cent swing to the PNP to produce these meagre margins.
