Arnold Bertram

THE ADMINISTRATION led by Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller will complete the first 100 days in office shortly. Between February 25 when she was elected president of the People's National Party and March 30 when she was installed as Prime Minister, the response to her victory made it clear that a new social class had come to power.

Throughout the campaign the traditional 'Drumblair' leadership of the PNP associated with Norman Manley was a primary target for overthrow. But, how can the PNP discount the role of the intelligentsia in building the party and maintaining it for 17 years before its first electoral victory, as well as providing Jamaica with an unprecedented period of national development between 1955 and 1962?

PRODUCING MORE

Understandably, the immediate objective of the masses is to consume more. The question is, how do we produce more goods and services, at more competitive global prices, to pay for this consumption? This is the major challenge of successive governments for over three decades and it is posed with even greater urgency for the new administration. Increasing access to an expanding economy is the only hope for the poor, and this cannot be achieved without the direct involvement of the intelligentsia and the entrepreneurial class as an integral part of national leadership. The increased productivity of labour which we so desperately need will not be realised without education and training.

Given the popular base of both administrations, a comparison with Michael Manley's first 100 days in 1972 is inviting and informative. Michael Manley started in a hurry to make good on his campaign promises. He launched a national crusade to wipe out illiteracy, embarked on a revolutionary programme of land reform and agricultural production, initiated legislation to bring an end to centuries of discrimination and created an impact work programme to alleviate the chronic employment which stood at some 26 per cent. Simultaneously, he re-engineered strategies for youth training and gave new directions to Jamaica's foreign policy.

THE ROLE OF JAMAICA HOUSE

Prime Minister Simpson Miller at the end of the first 100 days has neither Manley's record of activism, nor can she claim to have generated the mood of optimism which Manley did. To be fair to her, it is far more difficult to break new ground coming to power as she has done in the 17th year of PNP rule. It would require extraordinary imagination and capacity to create the impression of a fresh start, and around her these seem to be in short supply.

Jamaica House automatically becomes the nerve centre of each administration. I joined the staff of Prime Minister Michael Manley in 1974 as his Parliamentary Secretary. His support staff included O.K. Melhado, who had been seconded from Desnoes and Geddes, one of the largest manufacturing concerns in the country; M.G. Smith, Jamaica's most celebrated anthropologist; Richard Fletcher, an outstanding economist; Corina Meeks eminently qualified with extensive experience in public administration and; Orlando Patterson who at the time was also Professor of Sociology at Harvard University.

Then there was the civil administration led by Permanent Secretary Gordon Wells and Jean Smith. Claude Robinson, Beverley Manley and I were the three "rookies". Today's globalised world is a far more complex environment for governance and this makes quality staff all the more important.

One positive achievement of the Simpson-Miller administration is the retaining of the PNP seat in Eastern Westmoreland in the recently held by-election. A majority of 3,000 in a by-election is a good result under any circumstances. However, this was achieved by the indefatigable efforts of the finest PNP political workers drawn as much from the 'Solid as a Rock' and the "Prosperity" campaigns as from 'Team Portia." Without them it would have been a very close affair, for despite the sentiments, the Portia factor hardly accounted for much of the voting.

MATTER FOR CONCERN

A matter for grave concern is the unmistakable sign that unity and a sense of cohesion have not yet been restored to the PNP. I am also of the view that it is the responsibility of the victors to extend the hand of friendship and solidarity to the vanquished. If the PNP operating at full throttle in 2002, barely defeated the JLP, what chance does it have with only half of its cylinders firing in the next general elections?

The task of presiding over a developing country in social disarray and with a weak economy in a globalised world is a super human one. It is not an easy road.

Against this background, the freedom to be creative begins with "the recognition of necessity." Whether we like it or not, Omar Davies is the best candidate available for the Finance Ministry in the present parliament. The only other parliamentarian who could credibly preside over that critical portfolio is Peter Phillips for whom there is no substitute at the Ministry of National Security. Similarly, the loss of the expertise and experience of P.J. Patterson in the cabinet and K.D. Knight in Foreign Affairs is not likely to be filled immediately.

There is no doubt that the services of both will be needed between now and September when Jamaica will vote to support either President Chavez of Venezuela or the American candidate, the President of Guatemala for a seat in the United Nations Security Council. Either way Jamaica votes, one thing is certain "macka is going to juck us." The question is which "juck" will be hotter?

The United States is not only the dominant power in today's globalised world, but our major trading partner and primary market for tourism. Thousands of Jamaicans have made the United States their home and their repatriated earnings account for our single largest source of foreign exchange. The United States sees control of the Security Council as the primary weapon in the forthcoming fight against Iran and will not be disposed to forgive any "friend" who fails to recognise and support their vital interest in this matter.

PETRO CARIBE AGREEMENT

Chavez is intent on making Venezuela the dominant power in the Caribbean and South America. To this end, he has created the "Petro Caribe Agreement" which is in essence, an indispensable and reliable source of oil and capital for a region that is desperately short of both. In the absence of this agreement, there is not likely to be cash available for those programmes from which the poor can expect immediate benefit. In offering himself for the available seat on the UN Security Council, Chavez clearly expects the support of those who are planning to benefit from Venezuela's oil and capital.

This decision calls for a sober assessment of our national interest, and in making this decision we might as well understand that, "we live in an age when nobody dies for principle except on the stage." The immediate task is to put in place the diplomatic expertise to deal with the inevitable fall-out which will materialise whatever our choice. For this "Mission Impossible" Prime Minister Simpson-Miller needs not only to retain P.J. Patterson and K.D. Knight but to resurrect Michael Manley, Hugh Shearer and Alfred Rattray. From all indications this vote is likely to be taken in the middle of the general elections being contemplated for September.

The Jamaican dollar continues to slide and the Stock Market is in free-fall. With each passing day, the billion dollar bauxite expansion at JAMALCO becomes less certain. In this situation everything depends on a substantial expansion in Tourism.

The first one hundred days has been in every sense a wake up call, and the learning curve is turning out to be far more difficult than anticipated. No political party or social class on its own can develop the country, and any attempt to separate the winning of political power from a programme of national development is bound to set in train the divisions in the party and in the country before 1980. This need not happen, for a united PNP is capable of providing Jamaica with a far brighter future.

Arnold Bertram, historian and former parliamentarian, is current chairman of Research and Product Development Ltd. Email redev@cwjamaica.com.