John Rapley
THE STAKES in Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's gamble appear to have risen sharply. Having opted for a military rather than a negotiated solution to the recent capture of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants, he can ill afford to now back down and pay what would be seen as a ransom - the release of Arab prisoners in return for Jewish soldiers. But now that Hezbollah fighters have captured two more Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border with Israel, his options seem more constrained.
Declaring the Hezbollah incident - in which at least three Israeli soldiers were killed - an act of war, Mr. Olmert sent Israeli troops into Lebanon for the first time in six years. Their immediate purpose appears to have been to destroy possible escape routes Hezbollah could use to carry their captives further from the border. But the Israelis appear to have no idea of just where the soldiers have been taken.
MILITARY ACTIONS
Hezbollah was not acting in support of the Palestinians. It wants some of its own people, held in Israeli jails, to be released before the soldiers are returned. But the timing was not accidental. Hezbollah, and its backers, spied an opportunity to act at a time the Israelis are engaged in military actions in Gaza. Ideologically, too, the action will be popular in the region for being a successful Arab attack on the Jewish state.
Just as Israel holds the Palestinian authority ultimately responsible for its soldier held captive in Gaza, so too does it hold the Lebanese Government responsible for this incident. Hezbollah, which is more or less autonomous in southern Lebanon, is represented in the Lebanese Government. And Beirut is unlikely to condemn the attack.
Thus, in principle, Israel will feel free to escalate its actions into Lebanon proper. Mr. Olmert has even hinted he will punish the Lebanese hard by destroying their infrastructure, only freshly rebuilt after a long civil war. A renewed military occupation, which the Israelis ended six years ago after nearly two painful decades, is also on the table.
All in all, the gloves are off. In one respect, Mr. Olmert's position has improved. He will feel less reined in, and seems prepared for full-scale military operations. International opinion condemns the Palestinian and Lebanese actions, but has called for Israeli restraint. But domestic opinion will, at least for now, hardly look unkindly on harsh actions.
Nevertheless, the soldiers remain captives. Israel has proved itself vulnerable on its northern border (for once, Hezbollah seems to have won an all-out victory in the intelligence battle with the Israelis). And Hamas, for one, appears not to have been cowed by Israel's actions so far in Gaza. Emboldened by the Hezbollah operation, it has now raised its demand for the number of Palestinian prisoners it wants freed before it releases its captive. In short, Mr. Olmert seems to have no 'Plan B' if military actions fail to find the soldiers.
RISING TENSIONS
Meanwhile, tensions throughout the region will continue rising. The problem, of course, is that Hezbollah does not stand alone. Backed by Iran and Syria, both of which have some interest in seeing an escalation, Hezbollah is unlikely to feel restrained in the way it responds to an Israeli offensive. An all-out regional war remains a remote prospect. But the likelihood of a substantial conflict, in which some countries act through proxies, is emerging. And if, in the midst of it all, Mr. Olmert fails to free the Israeli prisoners, his own countrymen are likely to turn against him.
It may make for fascinating theatre. But, it is pure tragedy for those who have to live it.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
