Mr. Rafi Ahmad, Dr. Simon. F. Mitchell, Prof. E. Robinson and Dr. Balfour Spense, Contributors
Left: Residents use a bridge in Mount Lebanus that was destroyed by the flood waters associated with hurricanes Dennis and Emily. Right: This house in Irish Town, St. Andrew, had a close call after the ground supporting a section of its foundation was eroded during a landslide following Hurricane Dennis. -
PHOTOS BY RICARDO MAKYN/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
WHILE THE impact of hurricanes can be mitigated through structural measures involving engineering works, and non-structural measures such as evacuation plans and public education, the reality is that risk cannot be eliminated. In that regard, the objective to hazard mitigation is the reduction of risk to a level where people can live with these risks. Risk reduction should attempt to incorporate traditional coping strategies with the science of mitigation, and as such should be community-focused.
Hurricanes and related phenomena, such as floods and landslides, are the most recurrent hazards affecting Jamaica. Vulnerability to these hazards is largely related to geographical setting, climate and geology. Over the past two decades, increased pressure has been placed on the economic, social and environmental fabric of the country as changing land-use practices have increased the risk of impact from hurricane and related hazards. As a consequence of recurrent hazard-related damages, Jamaica is forced to divert scarce resources earmarked for development projects to relief and reconstruction, resulting in impeded economic growth.
For instance, in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Ivan (September 2004), J$94.9 million was diverted from government institutions to finance relief activities. The total economic impact of this hurricane was estimated at J$3.6 billion or the equivalent of eight per cent of the country's GDP for 2003 (Planning Institute of Jamaica, 2004). Hazard impact also directly affects the foreign exchange earning capacity of Jamaica at a time when extra resources are needed to finance imports of food, energy, and inputs for the agricultural manufacturing sectors.
Hazard impacts are often exacerbated by social factors such as poverty, the location of settlements in hazardous areas, environmental degradation, and in some cases, poorly constructed infrastructure and housing. For instance, in 1986, during one of the worst incidences of flooding in Jamaica's history, 54 lives were lost and damage to infrastructure and agriculture totalled over J$1 billion. In real terms, these impacts and associated costs are likely amplified, because soil loss during high magnitude rainfall and associate flooding is not normally incorporated into the assessment of impact cost.
Over the last two decades Jamaica's economic growth and development has been persis-tently hampered by the impact of natural hazards. Between May and September 2002, flood rains in Jamaica caused cumulative damage of about $6 billion. Placed in perspective, that $6 billion was approximately 26.3 per cent of the total budget for education in 2003 and could have built 12,000 low income houses to shelter the poor. Were these monies not spent on disaster recovery, they could have reduced fiscal deficit and advance growth.
WHAT IS A HURRICANE?
Hurricanes are low-pressure tropical cyclones that form in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific. They begin life as poorly organised clusters of thunderstorms (poorly defined weather systems). If the conditions are right (warm sea surface temperatures, converging winds and low wind shears) air is transferred from the centre of the system towards the edge of the system and the central pressure drops. This leads to a progressive organisation of the system and when a closed surface circulation forms the system becomes a tropical depression. As the pressure decreases the maximum sustained winds increase leading to the formation of a tropical storm (wind speeds of 39 mph or more) and eventually a hurricane (wind speeds of 74 mph or more) with a well-defined eye. Hurricanes are classified using the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale which is based on maximum sustained wing speeds.
