David Jessop, Contributor

Much has been written about the implications of Fidel Castro's health and his decision to temporarily cede power to others within the Cuban leadership. But most of it is ill informed and bears little relationship to Cuban reality.

President Castro is no longer in intensive care, and the official comment is that in due course he will resume office. Indicative of the absence of crisis is the fact that key members of the politburo including the vice-president of the Council of State, Carlos Lage, and the Minister of Health, Jose Ramon Balaguer, have been out of the country and that Raul Castro had no reason to make an early broadcast to the nation.

For the last 47 years, Cuba, a nation that regards itself at war with the United States (U.S.), has had to prepare for a sudden change of leadership under less than predictable circumstances.

A nation well prepared

What the events surrounding President Castro's provisional transfer of power provide is a picture of a nation well prepared should a sudden change of leadership be necessary.

For Cuba, the fundamental issue is not about the short-term logistics of succession. Rather, the more important issue is a psychological one revolving around who can retain in the longer term, the trust and respect of the Cuban people.

It is true that many in the younger generation, in particular, would like to see change in the sense of greater material benefit, but, it is also clear that they will not accept such change at any price and most particularly not in response to the demands of the U.S. administration and the Cuban American community.

For this reason, the eventual successor to President Castro will have to be trusted by both the party and the people if he or she, another failing of most media analysts, is to retain the confidence of the majority of Cubans who want change within the system.

This suggests that the ultimate succession, as opposed to any interim measures, is most likely to take place slowly, occur in phases, and will be based upon ensuring stability, the continuing delivery of national programmes, and on the consolidation of power amongst a new generation of leaders.

A gradual transfer

It also indicates that there will be a gradual transfer of authority from the generation in their 70s, to others between their 50s and 30s.

The statement issued by President Castro before his operation came in response to the potentially serious implications of the operation he was about to undergo.

As such, it does no more than reveal at this time, what might happen in the first part of an eventual process of change that may take many years.

Notably, President Castro proposed a division of his powers. The Cuban Vice-President, Raul Castro, was made responsible for the strategic guidance of Government, the defence of the country and effective governance, until President Castro returns to office. Trusted older colleagues - some of whom had recently been named to the new secretariat of the Cuban Communist Party - will ensure the continuing defence of Government's social policies relating to education, health care and energy. Also appointed were a triumvirate of senior pragmatists, operating through a new commission to control the finances of the island's most important social projects and by extension the key spending sectors of the economy. All of this should be seen as temporary as in any eventual succession there will have to be a very different process involving the endorsement of the whole leadership and the Cuban Communist Party.

When this finally does occur, there are clearly a number of key groups that will have significant influence on the eventual appointment of a new leader.

They are the Cuban military which is, broadly speaking, a liberalising force being responsible for having undertaken most of the economic experiments that have lead to the development of new Cuban economic models; the Cuban Communist Party and its new generation of members; the leadership in the provinces, the young communists and the trade unions.

Identifying individuals is futile at this stage, but those who most probably should not be ignored are those who have previously worked in President Castro's secretariat, who are also close to Raul Castro or the technocrats who have ensured that the Cuban economy has survived and continues to be able to underwrite the nation's social progress.

What is often misunderstood in interpreting developments in Cuba is that it is not monolithic, and that its guiding principles are social. That is to say that all policy options in Cuban society are led by the contribution that any decision makes to development of the Cuban people. This means that the characteristics of the transition process in Cuba will be determined by the individual or individuals who can most command the trust of the Cuban people and best exhibit the personal characteristics promoted by the Cuban revolution.

President Castro will return to power, but his health will determine the extent to which he will take back control in some or all of the areas in which he has ceded power.

More importantly, his illness may now cause an acceleration in a lengthy process already under way and a greater concentration on winning the support of the younger generation. This will most probably mean a gradual process of economic liberalisation within the context of the Cuban economic system which has been steadily improving for the past few years.

David Jessop is the director of the Caribbean Council. Email: david.jessop@caribbeancouncil.org.