Arnold Bertram , Contributor
The present political situation is unique for the fact that neither the government nor the opposition seems capable of scoring runs on a wicket that is being daily determined by objective conditions. Faced with the reality that the country's productive base offers little or no hope for satisfying the expectations of the poor, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller is now focused on securing her own political mandate by calling general elections as quickly as possible.
The relationship between another round of elections, the improved productivity of the labour force and the increased competitiveness of our goods and services is, however, yet to be made clear. One thing is certain - only by increasing the already ballooning US$2.6 billion trade deficit will we be able to continue to enjoy the range of luxuries we currently import from the developed economies of the world. Our present export earnings from tourism, bananas, sugar and bauxite just won't cut it.
The resurrection of Bruce Golding
Four months ago Bruce Golding and the Jamaica Labour Pary (JLP) were politically dead, waiting for the pronouncement of last rites. Today, both have been resurrected and energised by the PNP. Overnight, the Prime Minister's threat of snap elections no longer holds any terror and each passing day the factor of surprise becomes more remote.
It is not often in the last two decades that the leadership of the JLP has found itself with such political capital, and Audley Shaw, the Party's spokesman on Finance, is certainly in a hurry to squander it by repeated promises of massive public sector salary increases without the slightest idea as to where this money would come from. In short, both camps have elevated the requirements of the political campaign above any serious discussions on the state of the economy and the future of the country.
Jamaica's status in the Caribbean and the world
Even before political independence, Jamaica earned for itself the respect of the international community. In the decade preceding independence, it was one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
The last meeting of CARICOM Prime Ministers confirmed a marked decline in the status that Jamaica traditionally enjoyed in the Caribbean. In former times, even with a declining economy, both Manley and Patterson brought diplomatic skills and a wealth of international experience to the table which ensured Jamaica's prestige within CARICOM. For those who took the time to listen to the statements by the other Caribbean leaders, during the discussions, both Trinidad and Barbados are asserting their right to lead on the basis of their superior economic performance and standard of living.
Less than four decades ago, Alexander Bustamante, on the eve of becoming Jamaica's first Prime Minister, spoke scathingly of the 'pauperised' islands of the Eastern Caribbean and castigated the then Prime Minister of Barbados, Grantley Adams, for ruling over "abject poverty for long years in Barbados without visible improvement." He would certainly be alarmed at the deterioration that has taken place, for today Jamaica has the third lowest per capita income, as well as the third lowest literacy rate among CARICOM countries.
Jamaica's present difficulties were not created by the present Prime Minister. She inherited them along with some positive achievements. However, it is always the responsibility of leadership to articulate a vision as well as a programme of development around which the country can be mobilised for progress, and responsibilities cannot be delegated.
Dealing with the enemy within
Even as the party prepares for elections, there seems to be no urgency in adopting specific measures to promote the unity of the party which is indispensable for a successful campaign.
The story is told that at the height of the internal struggles in the JLP during which the 'Gang of Five' emerged, senior members of the Party became increasingly concerned about its chances of survival.
On the eve of the 1989 general election, a member of the standing committee suggested to Mr. Seaga that he direct his fire at the PNP rather than continue with a course of action that could only result in the demise of the second tier of Party leadership and strengthen the PNP. Mr. Seaga listened attentively and then posed the following question, "If you have a snake in the house and a snake in the yard, which one would you go after first?"
I have never been able to confirm the answer to Mr. Seaga's question but his method of dealing with the enemy within did not change, neither did the political fortunes of the JLP.
Bruce Golding could only have smiled at his unexpected fortune, as on the eve of the impending general election, Dr. Vincent Lawrence and the present PNP administration seem to have parted company. Against all political logic, the PNP will be entering the campaign without the services of one of the administration's most effective public sector managers and the man around whom the party's electoral machinery has revolved since 1986. His resignation from all positions in the State and the party has been tendered with immediate effect.
For the PNP, it is like Donald Sangster leading the JLP into the 1967 elections without D.C. Tavares or the wider historical parallel of Napoleon facing the armies of Europe without Carnot.
Popular standing and the outcome of the election
I do not subscribe to the view that Portia Simpson-Miller's standing with the masses is being eroded purely on the basis of her performance as Prime Minister. Independent of her performance, she still enjoys considerable popularity, particularly among the poor who remain adamant in the view that what is needed is a leader with the courage to distribute what we have more equitably. The lesson that you can only distribute what you produce is yet to be learnt, and it is not likely to be learned before the elections.
Experience teaches that there is no automatic relationship between an electoral victory and national development. Elections can be decided by the subjective views of the electorate at a particular point in time. Development is a far more complex process in which objective factors dominate.
The absence of a clearly articulated programme of national development accompanied by an action plan complete with time frame provides a fertile ground for cynicism and selfishness. In this context the preoccupation of both political parties with the elections which will confer the power of the state on a small group is daily demoralising the few who still cling to the hope which accompanied Independence in 1962.
The future of the country cannot be left to divine intervention. Despite the fact that 75 per cent of the population over 12 years of age not only profess Christianity but are organised within the Christian church, there are few instances of Christian influence on modes of behaviour. Any attempt to promote more praying and fasting without effective Christian witness is no more than a whistle in the dark. Such a course of action reflects hopelessness and an incapacity for sustained good works' that no Christian community should allow itself to be reduced to. 'Faith without works is dead.'
Among Christians, it is common knowledge that "the effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man availeth much." If prayer, however, is being recommended as a means of diverting attention from the problems which certainly confront us, my advice is 'watch' and pray.
Arnold Bertram, historian and former parliamentarian, is current chairman of Research and Product Development Ltd. Email: redev@cwjamaica.com.
