FILE PHOTOS
From left, Simpson Miller and Golding.

The euphoria for Portia Simpson Miller after her election as People's National Party (PNP) President in February has largely collapsed, with previous support for her moving to the ranks of uncommitted voters.

According to a new Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson opinion poll, as much as 36 per cent of people interviewed did not express an intention to vote. This was in comparison to 38 per cent broad support for the PNP and 26 per cent in favour of the Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

With the JLP unable to take advantage of the retreat in the pro-PNP surge, the ruling party maintains a 12-percentage point lead over the Opposition.

JLP support static

With support for the JLP remaining static, the people who have turned off the PNP, moved mostly into the columns of those who say they will not vote (20 per cent, up seven percentage points from May) and the undecided.

This group, at 13 per cent, remained the same as in May, but five percentage points higher than in March. Those who refused to respond to the pollsters remained at three per cent as in May.

Johnson and his researchers conducted the poll between July 15 and 16, interviewing 1008 persons in Jamaica's 14 parishes. The findings have a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Fifty-three per cent approval

Notwithstanding their ambivalence towards supporting the PNP, 55 per cent of persons surveyed approved of the Prime Minister's performance, while 16 per cent disapproved, and 29 per cent expressed no view.

Simpson Miller, a charismatic and populist politician, was elected PNP leader on February 25, beating off three challengers, the closest being the National Security minister, Dr Peter Phillips. She immediately inspired a spike in support for the PNP, which has been in Government since 1989.

In his March survey, Johnson found that 52 per cent of the electorate was tending towards the PNP, with 43 per cent saying they would definitely cast their ballots for the ruling PNP if the election was held then. Nine per cent said they would probably vote for the PNP.

But by May, broad support for the PNP had receded by eight percentage points, to 44 per cent, and dipped further to last month's 38 per cent - a cumulative 14 percentage slump over four months. The definitive PNP vote in the latest survey is 33 per cent, plus another five per cent who said they would probably vote for the party.

Disillusionment

Johnson explained the decline in PNP support as disillusionment among Jamaicans that their expectations from the new administration had not materialised after Simpson Miller's euphoric inauguration in March.

This decline has not translated into the expected tussle between the PNP and the JLP. "The Prime Minister and the PNP are running against the expectations that were created, and they are not meeting those expectations and are, therefore, losing ground," Johnson explained.

The view, however, contrasts with that of political commentator, Kevin O'Brian Chang, who argued that the Simpson Miller euphoria has dissipated, leaving the PNP with its base support. "I cannot think of any good news for the PNP that would say that they are going to bounce back," he declared.

powerful draw

But while the Simpson Miller magic appeared not to be as potent as in the immediate aftermath of her election, she remained a powerful draw for her party, Johnson's finding suggested.

When people were asked why they would vote for the PNP in an election, 35 per cent, the biggest chunk, said they were party supporters. Another 33 per cent would be influenced by the Simpson Miller factor.

In addition, according to the pollster, 60 per cent of undecided voters have a favourable view of Mrs. Simpson Miller, while nine per cent hold an unfavourable opinion. For the JLP's Golding, 27 per cent has a favourable view, while 34 per cent hold an unfavourable view.