Robert Buddan, Contributor

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) it seems has decided that it will have a hard time beating the People's National Party (PNP) because of the Portia factor. Head to head, Portia Simpson Miller, as the polls continue to show, is more popular than Bruce Golding. The JLP will therefore concentrate more on beating the PNP constituency-by-constituency. It apparently believes that the PNP's candidates are vulnerable and are depending on the Portia factor to carry them through.

The PNP is aware of this and is responding to this strategy. Mr. Patterson warned the party at its last annual conference that it is possible for the party to win the popular vote and lose the seat count, thus losing the elections. Further to this, the PNP had put its candidates on notice saying it was willing to replace those candidates for others who its polls show can win their constituencies. Thus, the party embarked on monitoring candidates and is to finalise its list by the end of November.

A NATIONAL ELECTORATE

Before national polling started in Jamaica in time for the 1972 elections, parties had to sound out voters to know how they stood nationally. More focus was placed on winning elections constituency by constituency. However, a national electorate was growing all the time, and by that I mean, one that tended to vote as a single national constituency. By the end of the 1950s, the two parties had consolidated themselves as national mass-based parties. Independent candidates had given way to party candidates and party loyalty and symbolism began to displace local loyalties.

By the 1970s and 1980s, Michael Manley and Edward Seaga had become the national personalities around whom the parties appealed. This was reinforced by a growing national communication and transportation system linking rural and urban Jamaica. Greater internal mobility of the population continued to break down local barriers creating a national political consciousness. The small size of the country caused voting to become more uniform across the nation. Marginal constituencies started swinging with the national trend. Only those that remained particularly strong for a party could be counted upon as safe. A new generation, less influenced by family patterns of voting, was more likely to swing with the national trend or become non-voters as the 1980s progressed into the 1990s.

Uniform voting

In the 1990s, this trend toward uniform voting was consolidated. Party victories had become more pronounced leading to big victories for the PNP and JLP from 1976 to 1997. Although the 2002 general elections were atypical, the 2003 local elections were consistent with the pattern of uniform national voting. In 1980, Carl Stone had actually suggested that as the country became urbanised, a new pattern of one-party dominance might emerge. The PNP has benefited from this since 1989.

The constituency-based campaigning of the JLP is its most realistic strategy. Except for 1980, the party has never been able to get more than 51 per cent of the national vote in general elections. It had to rely on seat majorities. But the fact that national voting has become stronger relative to local issues makes this strategy difficult to apply successfully today. The PNP is the more natural majority party capable of winning larger national majorities than the JLP has demonstrated an ability to do.

The JLP might have cause to worry that although it has been campaigning for months now and despite the Trafigura affair, it has still not been able to take a lead over the PNP in The Gleaner polls. It should be concerned that its latest show of support is only 32 per cent according to The Gleaner polls of last Sunday. Furthermore these polls have also shown that more people have a favourable opinion of the PNP while more had an unfavourable opinion of the JLP. More people in The Gleaner polls also say that the PNP would govern better.

Trafigura was the central issue in these most recent polls. They have not shown the lift in popularity that the JLP had expected. In the Stone poll the public gave equal credit to Mr. Golding on the Trafigura issue as those who were displeased by his use of illegally obtained information to publicise the issue. In fact, respondents blamed the bank employee (reportedly connected to the JLP), Colin Campbell, and Bruce Golding in that order as the persons most responsible for doing harm to the country over Trafigura. Twice as many people blame Mr. Golding for doing harm to the country than those who blame Mrs. Simpson Miller. There continues to be resistance to the JLP. More people in doubt prefer to go over to the undecided than to the JLP.

Both parties lost some public confidence over Trafigura. But so did the banking system.

The StonePoll said that 30 per cent of respondents had less confidence in the banking system and about the same percentage felt that persons who breached bank confidentiality should be punished. The polls indicated a drop in confidence in a system in which big political contributors give money for party campaigns showing that more Jamaicans favour partial state funding for campaigns.

Whistleblowers

There's a lesson here for those who take a cavalier attitude towards so-called whistleblowers and for those who believe that breaking confidentiality laws in the name of politics is somehow permissible. Jamaicans believe that the protection of institutional integrity, especially those like banks that handle people's money, is paramount to politics and that the greater harm to the country is of more importance than campaign politics aimed at harming a party. Those who believe everything can be politicised should take heed. This includes those private sector leaders who have played a very dangerous political game with the Trafigura issue.

Even though the PNP has come under greater questioning over Trafigura, understandably so, the JLP has not come out unscathed. The public wants more responsible behaviour from both parties. People expect limits on politics. Private citizens who have strong political bias must refrain from abusing the integrity of their institutions for political gain. Parties must not encourage or use information illegally obtained for their campaigns. And parties must explain how they come by certain large sources of money, foreign or local, and if there is any trade-off for favours made or intended.

Resignation

Mr. Golding's view that the Trafigura controversy warranted the resignation of the Government was exaggerated. People have more nuanced views than the straight good guy/bad guy position that he offered. His own ethical blind spot has damaged his reputation. If twice as many people feel he has done more harm to the country than the Prime Minister has, probably by his own logic, it is Mr. Golding who should resign.

Business organisations that have been political and soft on this issue should take heed. If banks cannot protect clients those clients have the right to take their business elsewhere. Business leaders are not likely to resign when they lose the confidence of the public. But distrust and displeasure by consumers send market signals that cause business failures. Before this happens, boards and shareholders should insist on institutional integrity and responsible management.

Our future does not rest only with political parties. It rests even more importantly with those institutions with which we conduct our daily business. Transparency, accountability, integrity, and responsibility are as much principles that apply to business governance as to political governance. Hopefully, Trafigura and the polls will be a wake up call for both kinds of institutions.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI. Email: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm