Ian Boyne

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will hold its 'mother of all conferences' today, pulling the jubilant and celebratory Labourites into the National Arena, overjoyed at the public brawls in the People's National Party as well as their hope of ever-widening rifts.

The perception of intractable disunity in the PNP is the best pre-Christmas gift that the JLP could get. In the political wilderness for 17 years, long burdened with an unloved and unpopular leader nationally, and faced with a formidable and well-loved political opponent with enormous charismatic appeal, the JLP is counting its lucky stars for the dramatic and unexpected turn of events in the PNP. That it is not so much that the JLP has been gaining traction than that the PNP has been losing ground matters little to the average Labourite who smells sweet victory at the polls, whenever they are called.

But it is party leader Bruce Golding who must be the chief celebrant in this political Mass. What a way things have fallen into place, as though by Divine Design, though he is not wont to invoke the name of God. Don't forget that a mere four years ago Golding was being blasted in the media and savagely attacked by all and sundry for 'selling out his ideals' and 'crawling back into the dutty politics of the JLP' that he had once so eloquently decried.

Severe blows

His former National Democratic Movement (NDM) colleague, Stephen Vasciannie, dealt some severe blows to him in the press, and Mark Wignall delivered his own deadly wounds. I was the only journalist who publicly supported his return to the JLP, and felt it was a brilliant and sagacious political move. I knew that in terms of political strategy Golding's move would be vindicated.

In my column of October 6, 2002, I criticised Vasciannie and others who were mauling Bruce in the press and pointed to their political myopia.

The election was on October 16 and Golding was brought back to the party just shortly before that by Eddie Seaga who was behind in the polls. It was an excellent move by Seaga. I wrote then, in answer to Golding's many critics in the media and on the talk shows: "Bruce is not thinking of October 16. For the first time he has a real opportunity to have state power within five years, which is not a long time. Whatever happens on October 16, Bruce Golding cannot lose. History will absolve him and the short-sighted will see the game as it unfolds. Those with vision can see it now."

As Golding is hoisted on that platform today, his mind is likely to flash back over the last decade to muse on how he has skilfully navigated the treacherous political waters. In his eyes, he is near the shoreline.

Mercilessly lashed

Hyacinth Bennett, in her own inimitable, high-pitched and histrionic way, with her special Pentecostal flavour, lashed him mercilessly when he left the NDM. But Hyacinth is by his side these days, showering kisses and all. Today, she will be holding his brief on Radio Jamaica as she covers the conference. Other Doubting Thomases, seeing the light of the resurrection of the JLP, have found their way home, thrusting their hands in Bruce's side, as it were, not in his back. I was dead right in my analysis four years ago.

I said back then: "In all of this, I rather suspect that the intellectually sharp, now strategically-focused Bruce Golding is looking beyond the immediate to the wider horizon. When both P.J. Patterson and Edward Seaga are off the political scene and the myopic commentators are overtaken by history, with the NDM long buried, it will be Golding's turn to test the PNP electoral juggernaut." That time has come.

And I rather suspect today that Golding is not intimidated. He has a number of things going for him. For one, the capitalist class and big business has thrown its weight behind him. He was able, in effect, to pressure Seaga into retirement because Big Money had pulled funding from party central, sending Seaga a clear message that in their view he was unelectable. Money talks, and even the rough and resilient Eddie Seaga had no option but to listen.

More malleable

The capitalist class had warmed to Golding initially not only because of Seaga's inability to unite the party and his public liability, but also because they saw Golding as more malleable than Seaga, who was known for his stubbornness. Seaga cannot be intimidated by either money or racial status, and his own keen sense of his own importance and superiority to many of the wealthy made him undaunted by them.

Golding was seen by the private sector people as indecisive, tentative and more controllable. (They would put it euphemistically - "Golding is not as arrogant and is a person who listens.") Big Money is accustomed to having its way. Portia Simpson Miller is not only a woman from the working class, she is a woman who still defines herself in those terms and is deeply rooted in working class identity and persona.

She is not a part of the old boys' network and she has no desire to be. She is not 'summonable'. Her place at the tables of the ruling class remains empty. So Big Money feels it has no alternative but to support Bruce. I don't blame Bruce for taking all the support he can get and for exploiting the situation which presents itself to him. Politics is the art of the possible.

The JLP, therefore, is not short of funds to run big media campaigns, organise at the grassroots and pull out the mother of all crowds today without depending on overseas campaign financing. There is enough money from the local capitalists to do that.

And the fact that the Jamaica Observer is perceived as taking such an anti-Portia line and is seen as being favourable to the JLP is a major boost to Golding. In the opinion of those who claim to know, the McConnells and 'Butch' Stewarts are not pleased with Portia Simpson Miller. The Gleaner itself has been running some pretty trenchant editorials lashing the Government and these do not hurt the JLP, which needs every help it can get in the media, said to be traditionally pro-PNP.

Other things which have been working well for Golding has been his clearly effective and combative parliamentary style. He has had a good year since the start of the budget debate when he delivered a first-rate, almost flawless presentation. The strong media publicity, especially television, of his Parliamentary interventions has stood him in good stead and positioned him as a political leader who has his fingertips on the pulse of things and who is in charge. Image and perception are critically important in politics. Golding has that working well for him.

The internal problems in the PNP, the muting of the overblown expectations associated with the ascendancy of Portia Simpson Miller to the leadership of the Government, and the issues surrounding Sandals Whitehouse and Trafigura as well as general concerns over allegations of corruption have all served to make Golding more attractive.

My PNP friends tell me that Golding is a hard-sell and that many people still don't trust him; that even Labourites have not forgiven him for what they see as his disloyalty in abandoning the party and forming the NDM. They tell me many still cannot reconcile his sanctimonious sermonising about dutty garrison politics and his easing himself into Tivoli Gardens, the mother of all garrisons. They say that kind of 'hypocrisy' is grating to many. My PNP friends note that while the PNP has been slipping in public support, the JLP has not benefited from much of that slippage.

In fact, they say it is a tribute to the PNP and a slap in the face of Golding that despite the PNP's being in office for 17 long years, the JLP is still not ahead of the PNP - and the PNP has not started campaigning yet. The JLP has peaked or will soon peak, they have assured me and when the PNP hits the road, cranking up the Portia magic, it will be something else.

Even a strong Golding supporter like the Jamaica Observer's columnist Mark Wignall, who like a jilted lover is now inconsolably bitter against Portia, admits in his Thursday column that, "Golding is not as loved as Simpson Miller. He, therefore, needs to reach that 10 to 15 per cent of the electorate who are finding it difficult to support Portia." Mark is a little worried that Portia and the PNP might not really be over, no matter what the crowd figures might show today.

Mark hopes that today Golding will be able to "infuse first his party workers and then his supporters, about 15 per cent of whom harbour only lukewarm feelings towards." But Golding is not an Audley Shaw or a Pearnel Charles on the platform, though he is nowhere as dull as many make him out to be.

Golding is likely to come to us with a set of concrete proposals for dealing with some of our deepest concerns. He is excellent in demonstrating that he understands the everyday struggles of ordinary Jamaicans. Some of the most poignant illustrations of hardships I have heard from politicians have come from him.

But in light of the fact that propaganda and political gamesmanship aside, this economy is not the disaster that is being portrayed, he should not strain credulity by playing Chicken Little today, telling us that the economic sky is falling.

The country is experiencing economic growth, inflation has been trending down, interest rates are falling, the debt-to-GDP is falling, the NIR is robust and tourism is booming. Cricket World Cup expenditures will inject significant sums in the economy, raising the incomes of the poor. But I agree: The masses are not confusing themselves with the facts, and you can sell anything from a political platform. But for that high percentage of the uncommitted, Golding had better come with some proposals for real change in the political and social order. It's time to resurrect the constitutional agenda and stake the fundamental differences with the PNP.

Bruce can choose to speak to the party fanatics and cultists before him today or he can speak to the nation. Which will it be?

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist. Email him at ianboyne1@yahoo.com.