Beverley Anderson-Manley

The People's National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party have had what The Gleaner editorial of November 23 refer to as their "political jam sessions". In questioning the utility of these sessions, the editorial notes that "If people made their own effort to attend these conferences, it might suggest that people have a deep, abiding interest in the direction of the country rather than a free day out for the party's hard core faithful". The editorial is probably not aware that on many occasions buses and stipends have been provided, but there are no takers. Money is a necessary but not sufficient condition to bring out these crowds. It also takes organisation.

The capacity to have a large crowd is one of the factors that provide the party leader with a sense of what is possible organisationally within the party at any point. Both parties have successfully accomplished this task with huge conferences.

The State of The Parties

Under the Westminster model of governance, it is the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister alone who has the constitutional right to name the election date. Step into her shoes for a moment and think about some of the factors that she has to take into account in deciding on the date for the next general election. Firstly, she has to be convinced that the party is in a high state of readiness. She has consistently told the party since March, 2006 to get ready as she wants all options open to her to set an election date.

She is not likely to set the date until she is convinced that the party is ready.

There is still a great deal of disunity arising from the leadership race, particularly between the "solid" supporters and the "Team Portia" supporters. Some of this is playing out in individual constituencies. What the public perceives is chaos and confusion. Disunited parties do not win elections. On the other hand, she will note that the JLP under the leadership of Bruce Golding is now more united and organised than it has been since 1983.

The State of the Constituencies

The Prime Minister then has to look at all constituencies, particularly those considered battleground seats. She has to bear in mind that in the 2002 General Election - 16 seats were won by margins of less than 1,000 votes each - eight by the PNP and eight by the JLP. Six of the 16 were won by less than 500 votes each - four by the PNP and two by the JLP. If the PNP is to win the fifth term with a working majority, the Prime Minister needs a minimum of 32 seats. This would include a Speaker and the Prime Minister. She cannot afford to lose more than four of the 36 seats now held by the PNP, unless the party picks up seats now held by the JLP.

Finally all these factors have to be seen within the wider perspective of the Jamaican economy and society generally. Investments continue to come in, particularly in the tourism sector. Growth in the economy is predicted. The downside is crime, violence and corruption. Although homicides are trending down, the crime rates are still too high.

The Leaders

As the Prime Minister looks at all these factors, she has to consider her own popularity as leader of the PNP and Bruce Golding's as leader of the JLP. Both parties are in a statistical dead heat. This fact makes the scrutiny of the leaders critical. The polls concur that there is a decline in the support for Portia Simpson Miller as leader while showing a simultaneous increase of support for Bruce Golding. However, the Prime Minister is still comfortably ahead of the Opposition Leader.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but sitting in the Prime Minister's chair for just a moment - when would you call the elections? Unless there are new constitutional arrangements, including a fixed election date - it remains the P.M's constitutional right to exercise her judgement in setting the election date anytime up to January, 2008.

Beverley Anderson Manley is a political scientist and gender specialist. Email: BManley@kasnet.com