Tony Becca

THE ASHES series between Australia and England is far from over. There are four Test matches to come, and although the home team is out in front after winning the first Test at the Gabba in Brisbane, even though they won it by a commanding 277 runs, the visitors could come back and win the contest.

Lest it be forgotten, last year when England won the series 2-1 at home, they did so after losing the first at Lord's by a decisive 239 runs and then winning the second at Edgbaston by two wickets and the fourth at Trent Bridge by three wickets.

There are many reasons why that recovery is unlikely to be repeated this time around, however, and certainly not as far as England hitting back to make it 1-1 at the end of the second Test starting in Adelaide tomorrow (tonight local time) is concerned.

The first reason is based purely on history - on the fact that Australia, with 3-0, 3-1, 3-1, and 4-1 victories, won the last four confrontations at home, that the first Test match in each of those series was played in Brisbane, that Australia won one by 10 wickets, won one by 184 runs, drew one with England hanging on, won one by 384 runs, and that they went on to easily win the second Test in all four series.

'Poms' smashed

In 1990/91 in Melbourne, Australia won by eight wickets; in 1994/95 Australia won by 295 runs; in 1998/99 Australia won by seven wickets; and in 2002/03 the men from Down Under smashed the 'Poms' by an innings and 51 runs.

The second reason is that after taking five wickets for 53 runs and four for 29 in the first Test last year, Glenn McGrath, Australia's number one fast bowler, did not play in the second because of an injury.

He also missed the fourth Test.

In other words, McGrath did not play in the two Test matches which England won to win the series.

Although one never knows what will happen tomorrow, and even though he injured his heel during the first Test, McGrath, the man who took six wickets for 50 runs in the first innings of the first Test as Australia nailed England for 157 after piling up 602 for nine declared, seems set to play all five matches this time around.

Based on the news coming out of the Australian camp, McGrath, who is determined to help Australia win back the Ashes, will definitely be playing and will be leading the Aussie attack which will include fellow pacers Brett Lee and Stuart Clark and legspinner Shane Warne.

The third reason is that based on Warne's love for the Adelaide pitch, based on the fact that he has taken 25 wickets in his past four appearances there, it seems a situation where if McGrath doesn't get England, if the combination of McGrath, Lee and Clark don't get them, Warne will - and especially so with Marcus Trescothick out of action.

Confident and bubbling

Reason number four is that in contrast to the confident and bubbling Australia, England must be trembling when they ponder the chances of their batsmen against Australia's bowlers and particularly the chances of their bowlers against Australia's batsmen.

Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood and Kevin Pietersen did fairly well as batsmen in the first Test; Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook are good, and captain Andrew Flintoff is a dangerous customer on the go. From the look of things, however, against McGrath, Lee, Clark, and Warne, plus any one of Shaun Tait, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Bracken and Stuart MacGill who are waiting in the wings, and on the lively Australian pitches, it could be another embarrassing Test match followed by a long, hot and testing summer for England's batsmen.

As far as their bowlers are concerned, England had better pray that Steve Harmison does not freeze again, that Flintoff is fit enough to pull his weight as a bowler, and even if they have to play both Ashley Giles and Monty Panesar, they had better go in with Panesar - for the simple reason that by spinning the ball more, by flighting the ball more, and by sending down a 'doosra' now and again, he is, in comparison to the defensive Giles, an attacking bowler and one who is more likely to get something out of the Australian pitches.

Level the count

England are not yet out of it, but for them to come back, for them to win this Test match and level the count, Harmison will have to be twice as good in Adelaide as he was in Brisbane; Flintoff will have to be 100 per cent fit and Panesar will have to be part of England's attack.

Anything else, and Australia's batsmen - Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer, captain Ricky Ponting, Damien Martyn, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke, and Adam Gilchrist - will preen themselves for the second time in a row.