The victory by John Compton and his United Workers' Party (UWP) in Monday's general election in St. Lucia should, perhaps, have a few lessons for those who engage in politics in Jamaica.

One is that while opinion polls are useful tools, providing a guide to how people may be thinking on a range of issues, they are not fool-proof predictors of people's behaviour, especially how they vote.

Second, at least in St. Lucia, age doesn't matter when it comes to leadership, particularly if people are fed up with the incumbent and are desperate for change. So, the St. Lucians have brought back that wily veteran, Mr. Compton, at 82, in place of their Prime Minister for two terms, Dr. Kenny Anthony.

There is perhaps something else, too, to be observed from St. Lucia; that is, good macroeconomic performance and growth in the GDP do not necessarily translate into a belief by people that their standard of living is improved; and that there will be electoral victory for incumbents.

The St. Lucian economy has recently been growing - by nearly five per cent - and the island has been held up by many as a model in the Caribbean.

Given that a Jamaica-based pollster's numbers in St. Lucia favoured the ruling party, what should we extrapolate from events in that Eastern Caribbean country regarding imminent elections here? Little! Or, more concretely, that nothing is certain.

Political parties, whether in Jamaica, St. Lucia or elsewhere, can't, as appeared to be the case of Dr. Anthony's St. Lucia Labour Party, become complacent and assume that poll standings will substitute for hard work and consistently good performance.

From this distance, it seems that Dr. Anthony's party felt that it could be carried by the perceived momentum of economic growth and its perception that the electorate would feel that Mr. Compton, who returned to the UWP's leadership last year, was too old. In the process, the government appeared not to pay attention to concern about rising crime and a growing perception of corruption. It also did not pay enough attention to what appears to be a growing economic nationalism in St. Lucia, and a perception that not enough was being done to protect the interest of workers against foreign corporations. Clearly, enough work was not done to explain the benefits of regionalism and the realities of globalisation.

All that having been said, it is unlikely that, from a regional and global perspective, there will be much change in St. Lucian policy. For while Dr. Anthony brought a cerebral grasp to the ideas and ideals of regionalism, Mr. Compton had a deep gut appreciation that cooperation among the members of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States - headquartered in St. Lucia - and within CARICOM, makes sense. If anything, Mr. Compton will be more receptive to, and uncritical of, foreign direct investment if that capital brings jobs. Any difference is likely to be the pace at which Mr. Compton will want St. Lucia to immerse itself into the CARICOM Single Market and Economy. He will, perhaps, advocate a slower, more leisurely engagement.

Despite the feistiness of his election, Mr. Compton's capacity to carry the government for a full term must be in question. We suspect that there will be a relatively quick transition.