John Rapley

WASHINGTON, D.C.:

After a week of cold, the weather in Washington, DC turned mild over the weekend. Gloriously sunny weather came to fill the days, which have been uncharacteristically warm this week.

The weather belies the mood in political Washington, mind you. Since last week's release of the ISG's (Iraq Study Group) final report, the spectre of a Vietnam scenario has inevitably begun to float around in the American capital. And it can only be unsettling throughout the country.

In 1968, the North Vietnamese launched a major offensive at the same time that the Lyndon Johnson administration decided it was time to change course in Vietnam.

Real danger

There is a real danger the same eventuality might now transpire in Iraq. It was against just this threat that conservatives had warned, calling for America to stay the course in order not to give their foes encouragement.

However, since the right could offer no clear, persuasive plan for victory, and the news from the front just kept getting worse, the American public eventually withdrew its assent in the November elections. Before leaving the post of Defence Secretary shortly after the elections, Donald Rumsfeld sent his president a memorandum in which he all but admitted that the White House had lost its war in Iraq.

The ISG document calls for a withdrawal of U.S. troops. It suggests that the speed at which they are drawn down be connected to the performance of the Iraqi government in delivering security. Everyone knows that the Iraqi government has failed to rise to the task of building a new army and police force, as the Americans had hoped it would do. The security services are insufficiently developed, and considerably penetrated by private militias that are using them to their own ends. Particularly in Baghdad, Sunnis often regard the security forces as their mortal enemies. Independent reports suggest they do so with good reason.

It isn't entirely clear - even to the Americans - whether this outcome is the result of ineptitude or deceit on the part of the Iraqi government. But if it is the latter, the ISG hopes that by holding a sword of Damocles over Baghdad's head - 'clean up your act, or we will leave you to your own devices even sooner' - they can force the government to get serious about the task at hand.

Key point

But the key point in the document is this: the Americans are leaving. Now this is, of course, merely a recommendation. As the commander-in-chief, President Bush has the option of ignoring it. Indeed, his initial response was to dismiss the recommendation.

Still, there is considerable speculation in Washington that Mr. Bush may, in the end, have no choice but to accept some version of it. Besides, the mood throughout America seems to have shifted decisively. If the Americans decided to stay the course and see the job through to a semblance of what the White House would consider completion, they would actually need to bolster their troop numbers. This would be all but impossible for the administration to sell politically.

And muddling through is no longer considered an option. So, with departure looking inevitable, those who have an interest in instability will no doubt foment more of it. The Vietnam scenario, indeed.

John Rapley is senior lecturer in the department of Government, UWI, Mona.