Robinson

Garwin Davis, Sunday Gleaner Writer

North East St. Ann, prior to the 1980 general election, was considered a People's National Party (PNP) stronghold.

Then came the by-election in 2001 where a woman named Shaine Robinson turned the form book around and won the seat for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

Pundits were stunned. What made the victory even more remarkable was the fact that Ms. Robinson, a political novice at best, was an eleventh-hour replacement for businessman Michael Belnavis, who had suddenly resigned.

Badly beaten

Many though, remained unconvinced. The PNP, they claimed, had it coming the moment the party opted for Carol Jackson over then St. Ann's Bay Councillor, Eva Murdock, as its candidate.

"Wait until the general election next year," was the rallying cry. "The labourites won because many of Eva's supporters stayed home in protest - don't count on that happening again."

Even the then prime minister weighed in.

"We are going to reclaim what is rightfully ours," Prime Minister P.J. Patterson said. "Lightening won't strike in the same place twice - this is PNP country."

Patterson demitted office earlier this year after winning a record three consecutive general elections for the PNP. A by-election was called following the surprise resignation of the then MP, Danny Melville.

Ms. Robinson would again defy the odds in 2002 by beating Ms. Jackson in what was a record voter turnout.

In fact, so high was the turnout that Ms. Jackson, in polling over 10,000 votes, received the highest number of votes for a losing candidate for either party. Even today, she remains convinced that foul play, involving the padding of the voters' list by her opponent was the reason for her defeat.

"We all knew what happened, but such is life," Ms. Jackson said.

Ms. Robinson, who can now be considered a formidable political force, dismissed Ms. Jackson's charges as ludicrous, calling her rival "a sore loser who can't come to grip with reality".

Tan Young, president of the James Avenue Small Business Association, argued: "The back-to-back victories by Ms. Robinson were only shocking to those who saw her as a newcomer and nothing else. They didn't realise the kind of tenacity, the natural political instincts that she possesses."

Fast forward now to 2006 and the question today is: Can the popular Ms. Robinson be beaten?

"Of course, she can be beaten," says Robert McKenzie, Ocho Rios businessman. "I am still convinced that there are more registered PNP voters on the voters list in North East St. Ann and all the party has to do is to get its act together. For now, Ms. Robinson looks particular strong because the PNP is not speaking with one voice."

However, Patrick Mesquito, social activist, disagreed.

"What Shaine Robinson has done is one of the biggest turnarounds I have seen in all my years observing politics," he said. "She has taken what was once considered a safe PNP seat and has turned it into a JLP stronghold. This is an amazing feat coming from someone who got into active politics less than seven years ago."

PNP not confident

But while some early polls were showing encouraging signs for the PNP, sources say, the party is no longer confident.

So much so that after attorney-at-law and the man who replaced Ms. Jackson as PNP caretaker, Oswest Senior-Smith, resigned several months ago, there was nobody lining up to replace him.

"There were no takers - the party could find anybody who was eager for a face off with Shainie," one PNP source commented.

Pollster Bill Johnson, while confirming that he did some polling in North East St. Ann, said he couldn't publicise the results.

"I was contracted to do the work and unless my clients want the result to be known I cannot in good faith comment," he said.

Senior-Smith, who has since returned as the PNP caretaker, is not the least bit perturbed about going up against Ms. Robinson.

"From where I sit, I have seen nothing magical about her representation," he said, already making his intentions known that he would be taking the fight to Ms. Robinson.

"When the cameras are on, she talks a good talk but have you ever seen her out there making representation or addressing head on the problems we are facing throughout the constituency, including Ocho Rios," asked Senior-Smith. "Let's take Ocho Rios as a prime example. Look at the problems: harassment, flooding, poor drainage, potholes, sewage, inadequate berthing facilities at the pier."

Not an absentee MP

Ms. Robinson's supporters, and there are many, feel the MP has been treated rather "shabbily by central government", arguing that she has been deliberately starved of resources.

"One thing nobody can say is that Shaine is an absentee MP," commented Alrick Thomas, businessman. "Even if she doesn't have all the answers, she doesn't run away and hide like many of our political representatives. She is out there with the people - she feels their pain; she shares in their sorrow."

Ms. Robinson, who, if anything never strays off message, said she was comfortable with the level of representation she had given to the people of North East St. Ann, and that she would be willing to compare her record with any of her predecessors.