Livingstone Thompson

The 2006 rate of homicide in the Republic of Ireland may well see a 10 per cent increase over the figure for 2005. That is significantly different from the rate in Jamaica, which has seen a 20 per cent fall in murders in 2006.

Looking back, the total deaths classified murder in Ireland in 2005 was put at 54. Additionally, there were four deaths classified as manslaughter, making a grand total of 58 homicides, which was 17 per cent over 2004. The situation deteriorated in 2006, with the total expected to fall somewhere around 64. If the official figures from the Garda (Police) Headquarters corroborate the figures we already have from the Garda Information Centre, there would be a 10 per cent increase in 2006 over 2005. An observer has remarked that this year could be the worst ever, in terms of murder rate, for the republic. From a statistical point of view, Jamaica has outperformed the Republic of Ireland in reducing homicide. This is the beauty of statistics.

Mind you, when we hear that there has been a 20 per cent fall in murders, we might be inclined to take more comfort than we should. Certainly that is the impression we get from those anxious to verify the credibility of Prophet Phillip Phinn. However, when we compare the 10 per cent increase in Ireland coming in the region of 64 total and a 20 per cent decrease in Jamaica settling at 1,300, there is little reason for taking comfort.

There is simply no justification for the rate of murder in Jamaica to be this high. If the Republic of Ireland is getting worried that they have past 50 homicides in one year, then we should have no semblance of comfort until we have been able to reduce the total in Jamaica to a figure below 50 murders. It may seem impossible, but it calls for continuing disgust against the numbers, determination and a consistent application of those same strategies, which led to the 20 per cent reduction last year.

The population of Ireland is nearly twice that of Jamaica and both countries have had a similar colonial and violent past. Our communities are equally deserving of people and evidence of a respect for human life.

CRIME PREVENTION PROGRAMME

The reduction in crime is probably a direct result of the strategies which Commissioner Lucius Thomas outlined a year ago. Serious attempts have been made to improve the divisional intelligence units and the use of forensic science. The Major Investigation Task Force (MIT) was set up to target specific geographical areas known for their high murder rates. We hope that the work of that task force will be evaluated to secure improvement and that more resources will be provided for its work. We must also encourage the Minister of National Security to press ahead with the plans he announced in May for the establishment of a crime prevention programme for each parish.

The overall programme, which was detailed in the sectoral debate by Derrick Kellier, involves building the capacity of communities to prevent crime and enhancing the capabilities of the police to detect and counter criminal activity. Evidently, the MIT is located within this broader policy and has already begun to justify its establishment.

Those of us who pray for divine intervention into our crime problem should be mindful of these crime-prevention measures when we pray. In fact, these programmes should be the focus of our attention rather than the prophecies about crime reduction. We are fooling ourselves about how the Lord will intervene, consequent on our prayer and fasting, if we fail to implement programmes with the aims and objectives, as the Hon. Derrick Kellier outlined, and which have been mentioned again and again in the different task forces on violence and crime.

NO TIME FOR DESPAIR

The protracted problems with serious crime coupled with failed policies of crime reduction can cause people to despair. It is for this reason people have become fascinated by prophecies about what the future holds for crime. It is for the same reason people are drawn to horoscopes. Despair evidences itself in our wanting to see the future, which, if positive, lulls us into a false sense of security. Looking for prophecies about the future can be a substitute for hard work and initiative and is constructed on the erroneous belief that someone is going to work the problem out for us.

Colin Steer, writing in last Tuesday's Gleaner, admonishes us not to be preoccupied with the shallowness that may parade as prophecy. This is a timely admonition. Hanging on to the words of prophecy may indeed be shallowness. More than that, however, it is, as Jesus warned (John 12:39), the temptation into which an evil generation falls. Those of us praying for divine intervention and those of us seeking consolation in prophecies should also be informed about the strategies that have worked to reduce murders in 2006 and link own our community efforts to them. Indeed, if the work of the police confirms the prophecies and the divine intervention, which we seek, takes the form of the effective strategies that led to the 20 per cent murder reduction in 2006, then let us prophesy and seek more of the same. Maybe Ireland could learn from what we are doing.

Livingstone Thompson, is a Jamaican theologian working in Ireland. He may be reached at livingstone.thompson@oceanfree.net.