Robert Buddan

This is an election year, and unfortunately Police Commissioner Lucius Thomas has started off the new year by suggesting that Jamaica might be in for a violent campaign. The commissioner has provided nothing specific to support this claim except general police intelligence indicating increased movement of arms in the country. Besides, the killings so far this year could, as some are speculating, be aimed at the police instead.

The claim of violence is made by one source or the other for every election since 1980 only for the predicted violence to fail to materialise. It is easy to rekindle fears in a society like ours even after 26 years and five generally peaceful national elections since the killings of 1980. Mr. Thomas has not said that there is any intelligence specifically to show that political gangs are being armed. The two political parties have said that they see no evidence of what the commissioner believes. Both parties signed a code of conduct in 2005 and they say they intend to stick to it.

No election has even been called and there probably won't be one in the first half of the year since the next voters' list will be published at the end of May. The alarm is certainly premature. It creates unnecessary nervousness. Since people like to fit 'facts' with pet theories, they will be looking at every murder to make connections with politics both to justify their political angst and create self-fulfilling prophecies. Already, the chairman of the Electoral Commission, Professor Errol Miller, has held a press conference to stem this nervousness by saying that the EC/EOJ will not tolerate election violence. The EC has the power to seek postponement of elections should circumstances warrant it.

What is unfortunate about the prediction of violence is that in the last quarter of 2006 Jamaica went through a dry run for elections with no build-up to political violence claimed by either the police or political parties. The JLP launched its election campaign, the EC/EOJ declared its readiness for elections, the PNP formed its campaign committee, manifestos were being prepared, campaign finance laws were debated and candidates selected. The only thing left was for an election date to be set. Yet, there were no alarms about political violence at a time when the majority of Jamaicans felt that an election would be called. That dry run is the best evidence we have that whatever the intelligence of the police was showing, it had little to do with planned election violence.

SETTING THE TONE

What is disappointing about the commissioner's claim is that it comes in the middle of a bumper tourism season, and unsubstantiated as it was, had been injudiciously given front-page headlines. This is how easily we can set the wrong tone for the coming year and the events we have planned. The claim comes when we are just two months away from the Cricket World Cup and when we should avoid scaring locals and visitors unnecessarily. Our cricket ambassadors have gone to even the far-away countries of Asia to encourage fans to come all the way to Jamaica to watch cricket.

The claim also comes at a time of economic stability and it doesn't take much to trigger negative economic reaction in a nervous society. Inflation is at a seven-year low. Economic growth is within the projected target of three to four per cent. International reserves are at their highest. The budget balance is better than expected. Interest rates are coming down regularly. The stock market ended the year at its highest. Last year, inter-national credit rating agencies even voted confidence in the economy in what they felt was an election year saying they did not believe the expected election would affect Jamaica's investment climate.

AGAINST THE TREND

The commissioner's alarmist statement comes against the trend since the country seems to be getting a better grip on crime and actually reduced murders by 20 per cent last year. This was a significant achievement because this is much better than what the police itself had expected at the beginning of 2006. We know that there is still a long way to go but the police chief's statement does not do justice to what he and his force have achieved. The police have announced time and again that it had made more arrests of drug traffickers last year, had broken up or compromised many major gangs, and had arrested or killed some of the most notorious gang leaders. It comes when the police say it is better equipped with intelligence and fingerprint technology and when there is better cooperation against trans-national crime, all of which should make us think we can do even better against criminals this year.

The commissioner gives the impression that nothing has changed in the past 26 years to stabilise our political climate and all that needs to happen is for elections to be called and guns will be imported and we have a repeat of 1980. Surely, this does not reflect well on the force and all the money that has been spent to make policing more effective, especially through community policing and peace management initiatives. The commissioner might have better spent his time telling us what targets the force had set itself for reducing murders and crime in general for the year, how it would go about achieving these targets, and why the country should have confidence in the police and their plans to ensure peaceful elections this year.

WORKING WITH POLITICIANS

The commissioner needs to separate social and economic violence from political violence and say how the force hopes to work with the Political Ombudsman and the parties, their candidates and the communities to ensure peace in the framework of the political code of conduct, and the law of the land. He should be promising the country a peaceful election, and if he has doubts that he can he should raise his concerns in a factual and sensitive way with the election authorities, the Ministry of National Security, and the political parties and seek to head-off any build-up to violence that intelligence might have detected. We cannot jump the gun on a matter such as this.

The two parties have said they are not aware of any build-up to election violence, or that any accumulation of weapons is connected to elections. They say they have no intention to intimidate voters. At the very least the commissioner should provide better evidence of which inner-city communities are importing guns, which gangs are receiving them, which parties they are connected to, and which candidates for elections are involved, if these connections exist and can be made.

Karl Samuda has said that political violence is a redundant concept. Peter Phillips has said that criminals cannot expect safe haven in any community or party and that the law will apply to all. It is easy to believe the worst of politicians but even they must be treated as innocent until proven guilty. I will not be quick to believe that parties led by Portia Simpson Miller and Bruce Golding will condone party involvement in violence; and I would hope that the new crop of candidates are selected by the parties on this condition. There is still time to investigate and weed out such candidates if they exist. If the commissioner did not mean to imply that any preparation for violence is being done with the knowledge of the parties and their candidates, he should say so. Political reputation and confidence in elections are too important to be left to interpretation.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, Mona, UWI. Email: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm