Colin Steer, Associate Editor - Opinion

An upsurge in crime, which the police seem unable to contain, has an obvious socially debilitating and destabilising effect on the general populace. When members of the security forces seem themselves to be under specific attack, societal fears increase exponentially and conventional wisdom kicks into high gear - the state itself is under siege, the argument goes.

Under 'normal' circumstances, we don't often hold police investigators to high standards of proof and evidence. So, in a situation where conjecture and speculation are accepted as facts, it is easy to conclude that policemen are being attacked simply because they are members of the Jamaica Constabulary Force or because the gunmen want their weapons.

To the supporters of the Government, acts of criminality and gun violence in particular are designed not only to keep the entire society unsettled but specifically to undermine the political administration. So, on the eve of Cricket World Cup, with a boom in the tourism industry and projects in the pipeline, etc., the obvious culprits must be forces allied to an Opposition party hungry to claim power.

On the other hand, those with a cynical eye for Machiavellian plots will counter that it is not beyond the pale for forces allied to or sympathetic to an incumbent administration to carry out acts of criminality and draw a trail - however tenuous - to the camp of the Opposition party, in the hope of gaining political mileage.

These analyses presume that the criminals allied to the political process are the principal players in the upsurge in crime. In the Jamaica of 2007, that presumption would be naive in the extreme.

It does not lie only in the minds of persons with very active imaginations to see how corrupt policemen may take out their own colleagues either in furtherance of personal vendetta or as hit men for the right sum of money. Given the involvement of policemen in the narcotics trade and other forms of criminality, anything is possible. This does not mean that the victims themselves were necessarily involved in any wrongdoing. But attacks against members of the police force can serve to divert attention from other investigations, cause a spike in public sympathy and encourage a hunkered down, all-for-one and one-for-all mentality.

Another suggested scenario that should not be dismissed is the role of the private security industry.

Towards the end of last year, the police have been reporting a decline in crime and homicides in particular. The police have been claiming better policing for the lowering of the crime statistics. Mark you, we have not seen any concomitant spike in the number of arrests, but that aside, we have no clear analyses or links to indicate whether the lull/decline is due to better policing or because of the supplementary role of the private security firms.

Major growth area

On the other hand, high crime rates and the attendant fears of the Jamaican society have made the private security industry a major growth area in the Jamaican service sector. Multiplied millions of dollars have been paid out over the past few years for increased security systems at business places and residential communities. Householders are paying out a lot of money not only to have private guards patrol their communities, gated or otherwise, but they have also invested heavily in panic buttons and other alarm systems, the better to protect themselves and their homes. It clearly makes sense to have beefed-up security in a situation where the state is clearly failing to fulfil its responsibility. But, in a perverse way, the success and profitability of our private security firms hinge on the society remaining unstable.

In a situation where police investigations are generally poor, where so few arrests are made, where people come to easy, obvious conclusions, how can we tell which of the above scenarios, or combination thereof is playing out in Jamaica?

High crime rates and the attendant fears of the Jamaican society have made the private security industry a major growth area in the Jamaican service sector.