Anthony Chang of the Jamaica Conference Board fields questions on Tuesday at the launch of the 4th Quarter Business and Consumer Conference Indices, at the Tera Nova Hotel in St. Andrew. Beside him is Jacqueline Brice, data processing manager, Market Research Services. - Ian Allen/Staff Photographer

Business confidence in the economy remained largely unchanged at the end of last year, but consumers, with the exception of Kingston residents, were less optimistic about their future.

The Index of Consumer Confidence recorded a decline of 128 points in the fourth quarter relative to the 134.4 recorded in the third quarter, the most recent consumer survey published by the Jamaica Conference Board shows.

"The overall decline was not due to any single factor as all components recorded a slight and insignificant decline," said the survey results released yesterday and explained by Professor Richard Curtin, Head, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan.

"In a break with past traditions, Kingston residents were a voice of greater optimism than residents of any other area of Jamaica, which was due to more favourable evaluations of potential growth in the economy and more favourable views on joblessness and inflation."

Jamaica is on track for single digit inflation in 2006, having record price movements of 13 and 14 per cent in prior years during periods when public sector wages were frozen.

Consumer confidence peaked in the second quarter of 2006, coinciding with Portia Simpson Miller taking control of the country, but has fallen in the last two quarters. The outlook for jobs was a little less positive.

Business confidence was at its highest, 127.3 points, in the second quarter of 2005, but at the end of 2006 was at 110.5.

Firms confident

Firms remained confident in the economy relative to the third quarter survey results when the confidence index was at 110.1, and were upbeat about profit performance.

"Perhaps the most important finding," said analysts of the survey results, "is that firms' expectations for their future profitability remained about the average levels over the past six years."

What has not changed is the concern that crime and violence remains Jamaica's biggest problems.

business@gleanerjm.com