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Stabroek News

Stocks focus on earnings, inflation
published: Sunday | January 14, 2007

NEW YORK (Reuters):

United States stocks may rally next week if the early stages of the earnings season yield positive results and U.S. data shows price pressures are moderating enough to keep interest rates steady.

Tech Bellwether Intel Corp., financial powerhouse Citigroup Inc. and this week's headline-grabber Apple Inc. all report next week and should offer insight into how the corporate sector fared in the final stages of 2006, when economic growth was slowing.

"It's going to be an action-packed week and certainly earnings are at the top of the list," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors, in Albany, New York.

"As long as there are no big earnings shocks, as long as earnings come in better than forecast, I think the stock market will edge its way higher," he said.

U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Friday, ending the week up as energy shares rebounded with oil prices and data showing surprisingly robust December retail sales underscored optimism about economic growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI> rose 41.10 points, or 0.33 per cent, to end at 12,556.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX> was up 6.91 points, or 0.49 per cent, at 1,430.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC> was up 17.97 points, or 0.72 per cent, at 2,502.82.

For the week, the Dow rose 1.3 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq advanced 2.8 per cent.

INFLATION DATA IN FOCUS

Looking ahead, the economic data calendar next week boasts two reads on inflation at the wholesale and consumer levels, which should give the market more guidance on when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates as growth moderates and price pressures ease.

The core Producer Price Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have accelerated at a 0.1 per cent rate in December, versus November's 1.3 per cent rise.

The core Consumer Price Index is forecast to have risen at a 0.2 per cent rate, compared with 0.1 per cent in November, leaving the year-on-year rate at 2.6 per cent, compared with November's 2.7 per cent.

"From the economic perspective, because the Fed has been talking about inflation so much, CPI and PPI are probably taking on a little more importance than they have probably in the past," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in Hinsdale Illinois.

The stock market will probably weather any unexpected pick-ups in price pressures in these two inflation gauges, especially after this week's near 7 per cent fall in the price of crude oil to 18-month lows below $55 a barrel.

Intel, the world's top chipmaker, reports on Tuesday and should offer a flavour of how the technology sector has fared at a time when some tech stocks have been punished, especially if it delivers an upbeat outlook for the industry.

Advanced Micro Devices shares fall

Shares of rival chip maker Advanced Micro Devices fell more than 9 per cent on Thursday, a day after it issued a warning on its fourth-quarter revenue and earnings.

"On the back of the AMD earnings, it will be good to see Intel to get a better read on the health of the semiconductor industry," said Andre Bakhos, president of Princeton Financial Group in Princeton, New Jersey.

Also on the tech front, Apple will release its quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Apple shares hit an all-time high of $97.80 this week after the company unveiled its eagerly anticipated iPhone mobile phone, prompting analysts to raise their share price and earnings targets.

The world's second largest cellphone maker, Motorola Inc., will also release earnings. The company last week issued a profit warning, which some believed was the result of fierce price competition between Motorola and its larger rival Nokia NOK1V.HE.

Along with Citigroup, some of Wall Street's biggest banks deliver earnings next week, including Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase & Co.

"It will be interesting to gauge at least how the banking environment is in light of housing and in light of some of the lending conditions," said Hinsdale's Nolte.

Other economic data next week include the Philadelphia Fed's index of business conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and the University of Michigan's preliminary read on consumer sentiment.

'As long as there are no big earnings shocks, as long as earnings come in better than forecast, I think the stock market will edge its way higher.' - Johnson

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