Edward Seaga

Jamaica has always had a strong tradition of voluntary service. The strength ebbed and flowed according to the level of inspiration which flowed from the mission or the vision of the time.

When prolonged protests of the workers on the wharves and in the cane fields drew the attention of the British Government, not just at King's House but at Whitehall, the office of the Colonial Secretary in London, Jamaicans began to feel the vibes that there was growing concern in the Colonial Office about conditions in the island. The Moyne Commission was established to investigate these conditions. This alone raised hopes that changes would be forthcoming.

While the workers were struggling to improve the pittance of wages which they were receiving and clamouring for 'a dollar a day' (four shillings), others in more comfortable circumstances were viewing the events as potentially rife for laying the foundations for independence.

Alexander Bustamante was the workers' champion who organised them into a potent force to secure better pay and improved conditions. This led to the founding of the Bustamante Industrial Trade Union in 1938 and the Jamaica Labour Party in 1943.

Norman Manley, meanwhile, was drafted by persons who had already been agitating for an independent Jamaica. The Jamaican Progressive League abroad and a group led by O.T. Fairclough and the Hill brothers in Jamaica. This led to the formation of the People's National Party in 1938.

There were two missions being pursued concurrently: workers rights and nationhood.

In the field, teachers, nurses, policemen, civil servants, church and the leadership of voluntary organisations, such as the Jamaica Agricultural Society and the 4-H movement, were all activated by the national cause. But there was concern as to which of the two missions would attract their active support. Bustamante was identified as a man of the masses. Correspondingly, Norman Manley was a respected member of the middle classes. The upward looking, socially mobile leaders in the field were part of the middle class.

They were committed to helping the masses, but would not respect the leadership of persons who they considered had less learning than they did. This factor influenced them heavily to support the national cause and, correspondingly, the PNP.

Working-class people, on the other hand, saw Norman Manley as a 'brown' man who would not be sufficiently concerned with their affairs. It was the BITU and JLP which could be depended on to struggle with them.

This class dichotomy was spelled out in the first general election in 1944 when Manley and the PNP were dealt a huge defeat.

By the second general election Manley and his party had organised to win more support of the masses. They were aided by the middle-class field leaders who helped him to organise support so that the PNP became sufficiently accepted by the people to win. Their first electoral victory was in 1955.

The class division continued. When I joined the JLP in 1959, it had very little middle-class support. Throughout the 1960s, active members of the middle class came in greater contact with the JLP because of the new social and cultural programmes, like the Jamaica Festival movement, which was attracting them. The JLP's image was changing. The new JLP leadership was more compatible with the middle class. But the solid support of the PNP still continued.

shortages

It was not until the 1970s that a shift began to occur. As the years progressed Michael Manley unhinged the strong support which his father had with the middle class, and I began to give middle-class interests my support in standing up with them against Manley's ideological excesses and his perceived threats to property and human rights. They also felt a sting of the economic policies which created great shortages and made travel abroad almost impossible.

Many of the stalwarts who held leadership roles in organisations which strongly supported the PNP began to back away from their traditional links.

My relentless criticism of Manley's policies attracted strong middle-class support that, for the first time, in the 1980 general election, the JLP could count on middle-class workers and organisation.

defeated

The swing went further than that. In 1972, the JLP candidate in Northern St. Andrew, the heart of the middle-class belt, was Herb McKenley, icon of track and field. Herb asked me to speak for him one night at a meeting on Red Hills Road. I drove along the road from top to bottom twice and could not locate the meeting. Finally, I asked a bystander who told me that he believed "something going on little further up the road". I eventually saw a group of about a dozen people by a shop step on which Herb was standing. Needless to say, Herb was defeated by an overwhelming majority.

In those days the JLP got only 10 per cent of the vote in the constituencies of northern St. Andrew, from Papine to Duhaney Park. In 1980, a massive swing occurred which gave majority middle-class support to the JLP in all the northern St. Andrew seats. This support has been maintained.

But a fundamental split still survives with overall majority support of the middle class to the PNP.

The shoe is now on the other foot. The PNP leader is now more comfortable with the masses than the classes. The image of the present Prime Minister had strengthened her in mass base constituencies, and weakened the usual PNP support in traditional PNP class-based areas.

Bruce Golding can benefit from this shift in allegiance. But the problem is that there might not be much to gain as the JLP already has a good deal of that support which has remained intact since the 1970s.

The forthcoming general election then, close as it is, may boil down to which leader can capture more from the other's base support as many voters switch from party to leaders with whom they feel more comfortable. Edward Seaga is a former Prime Minister. He is now a Distinguished Fellow at the UWI. Email: odf@uwimona.edu.jm.