With a general election due this year, the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls show Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) slightly ahead of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) among potential voters.

According to the polls conducted on January 5 and 6 this year, the Bruce Golding-led JLP has maintained its 32 per cent share of registered voters, reflected in the October 2006 survey. However, the PNP has taken a marginal one per cent step backwards during the same period.

Several people told Johnson's research team that the main reason they would vote JLP was because they felt it was time for a change. This represented 23 per cent of those who said they would vote for the JLP. Another 13 per cent said it would vote JLP because the PNP was doing a poor job of governing the country, while 12 per cent of respondents felt the JLP would do a better job of governing than the PNP.

Several of those who said they would support PNP, on the other hand, did so because they liked the party president and Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and her leadership style. They believed that it was time she was given her own mandate. This was all of 17 per cent. Another 14 per cent said they would vote PNP simply because they liked the party.

portia factor less

The recent polls are also showing a sharp increase in the number of undecided registered voters. This contrasts with a reduction in those who say they will not vote in the next general election. The rank of undecided voters swelled by six per cent, while the percentage of those who say they would not vote declined by four per cent.

The pollster analyses that the PNP might be losing marginal ground overall because the Portia factor is becoming less and less influential in deciding what party people will vote for.

Portia Simpson Miller's popularity has dropped by over 20 per cent since she became Prime Minister in March of last year, moving from 78 per cent to 52 per cent, according to the pollster.

But political commentator, Lambert Brown, does not believe the one per cent lead by the JLP is to be taken too seriously because it is still too early in the game.

no change

"It could easily be in the margin of error. Essentially, they have remained at the same point and there has been no fundamental change over the period," he says.

The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus three. Johnson surveyed 1,008 persons, age 18 and over in 84 communities across the country's 14 parishes.

Brown says it is also difficult to tell where the uncommitted are moving to based on the data and whether this group would remain where they are or choose one of the parties.

Which party for government?

Regardless of how you feel about your local candidate, if the general election was being held today, which party would you vote for?